Fantasy football...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by RosterWatch:

• Pete's 10 tips to crush your draft
• Could Brian Robinson be back soon?
• Matthew's 10 lists of 10 for the 2022 season
• Geoff's 2 rookies to target
  
• It's 9/1. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

Alright folks, it's crunch time. The season is less than a week away and drafts are flying left and right.

Whether you are prepping for your home league draft or squeezing in a few more best ball tournament entries, we got you covered today.

Here are my Top 10 tips for crushing your draft...

1. Choose your own adventure in Round 1. There is a clear cut Top 5 picks in 2022 drafts, but it’s the wild west in the rest of the round. Play to your strengths with this selection. If you like grabbing an Anchor RB, there are plenty to choose from. If you’re a Zero RB zealot, tee it up with a WR or TE selection.

 2. Let the first few rounds dictate how you attack the rest of the draft. It’s tough to mess up your draft early, but you can mess it up late if you don’t properly allocate the rest of your picks. Get comfortable with quality or quantity. Not both. If you draft RBs early, you’ll need to hammer WRs and vice versa. Regardless of how you start your draft, there are three dominant RB structures you can employ to finish strong.

3. Draft for upside. This sounds obvious, yet so many drafters get scared and make suboptimal decisions because they fear looking dumb more than they want to win. Only 1 person can win in a 12-person league. That's an 8.3% chance if everyone has equal skill. Embrace upside to increase those odds. Don’t handcuff your RBs. Don’t draft older players just because they project for early season volume. The waiver wire is your safety net. Chase upside as much as possible knowing if you whiff there will be ample, replacement-level production available on waivers.

4. Embrace uncertainty. If you want to build a superteam, you are going to need to take on risk and uncertainty. There are cohorts of players like rookies and injured/suspended players who still possess league-winning upside, but are discounted due to early season question marks. Championships aren’t won at the beginning of the year. Draft to build the late-season juggernaut. 

5. Find the 2022 league winners. Oh, you want the answers to the test? There are only a couple of Cooper Kupps and Jonathan Taylors out there and they go early in drafts. The key to a championship comes from landing this year’s Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashaad Penny, two sleepers who went undrafted in many leagues but put up monster scores down the stretch. 

Luckily for you, I did the heavy lifting and unearthed the rookies and other discounted players who are going to lead you to a championship.

6. Target Elite QBs and Elite TEs. Outside of maybe Josh Allen, I think you could argue that all of the Elite QBs and Elite TEs are undervalued relative to what they can bring to your squad. Whether you are trying to win $2,000,000 in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III or $1,000,000 in FFPC’s Main Event, the elite players at the “onesie” positions can separate from the position. It’s especially true for TEs on FFPC, where you get 1.5 points per reception.

7. Know the sweet spots in the draft. As we mentioned above, you can attack a draft with multiple structures, but knowing the value pockets of the draft is crucial to building a superteam. The other day I identified the sweet spots for upside WRs, elite QBs, punt TEs, and Zero RB targets.

8. Understand the settings and format for the contest you are playing. This is an unsexy tip, but arguably the most important. Study the default rankings and ADPs on the site you are drafting on, so you know which targets you can wait on. If you’re playing in an Underdog Best Ball tournament, it’s essential to know why Week 17 is so important and how to optimize for it.

9. Don’t be afraid to stack. Stacking is nearly mandatory in large field tournaments, but I like it for 12-person leagues as well. Stacking, and more generally speaking, correlation, reduces the number of things we have to get right to win. If Kupp has a big year, it’s very likely that his QB, Matthew Stafford, will as well. Stacking isn’t just QBs and pass catchers from the same team, here are some other creative ways to stack. Just be patient with stacking and don’t reach too much. Think of correlating your players as a boost and reaching ahead of ADP as a negative.

10. Get unique to win $2,000,000. If you are trying to beat 450,000+ entries in a contest like Best Ball Mania III, you’re going to need to get unique. You can do this via structures, by snagging values, and by galaxy braining unique combinations of players at the top of drafts. Here are some specific examples of how to do this in a smart way.

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🔟 Matthew's 10 lists of 10 for the 2022 season. Includes "10 Late-Round Running Back Targets."

🎎 The WR who has been running routes with "the stiffness of a mannequin." Ouch.

🙏 Could Brian Robinson be back soon? Encouraging report here.

💪 Baker Mayfield likes his new weapon. Don't act so surprised, Baker.

💰 Russell Wilson gets paid. Let's ride.

📈 Tom Brady wants Matthew to adjust the ranks. Your move, Berry.

🔥 One burning question for each NFL team ahead of Week 1. Fun rundown by The Athletic.

One of the best ways to draft league winners is targeting rookies. Due to uncertainty around their talent and early season role, they are often available at a discount relative to their true worth. Today, Geoff shares two rookies he's heavily targeting in drafts...

🚀 Isiah Pacheco (WR36)

After being lauded by Andy Reid this off-season, the buzz around Isiah Pacheco is building. Pacheco was an efficient rusher on a bad team in college and moved some eyeballs when he posted a 4.37 40M at the combine. He’s looked fast on game tape and got work with the first-team in the Chiefs last preseason game

Situation: Falling into the lap of Andy Reid coached team for any running back is a great start. Add in a starter in Clyde Edwards-Helaire who hasn’t provided the Chiefs with many explosive rush plays (his longest run in the NFL is 31 yards) and there’s a real chance Pacheco gets some looks as a change of pace back early. 

Outlook: Whether it was due to injury or poor play, the Chiefs resorted to a RB by committee late in 2021, giving significant snaps to players like Darrel Williams and Derek Gore (whom they just cut). It’s safe to suggest that Pacheco is an upgrade on both of those players so him having some kind of role right out of the gate shouldn’t surprise. 

Conclusion: There’s a lot of outcomes for Pacheco in 2022 that range from potential league winner to waiver fodder by Week 4. He’s likely a better dynasty league stash, but is also a player you should be happy to gamble on late in redrafts this year.

🚀 Wan'Dale Robinson (WR69)

Despite being attached to a poor team and mediocre quarterback, Robinson is starting to look like he’ll carry some overlooked upside for 2022.  The Giants have committed to Robinson since day one of camp and he led all rookie WRs in targets in the preseason. 

Giants first unofficial depth chart issued by the team has three rookie starters:  TE Daniel Bellinger, RT Evan Neal and WR Wan'Dale Robinson.  All three are 2022 draft picks.

— Paul Schwartz (@NYPost_Schwartz)
Aug 8, 2022

Situation: Robinson’s role in the slot on the Giants is secure and new head coach Brian Daboll’s past usage of the slot receiver is highly encouraging for his prospects. Starting slot receiver Cole Beasley saw 112 targets on the Bills last season, and was second in team target share. 

Outlook: Robinson led all rookies in targets in the preseason but he also grabbed an 11-yard gain on an end-around. We don’t want to start projecting a Deebo Samuel-like season here but it’s clear the Giants have a plan to get Robinson the ball. He’s technically the WR3, but will be battling for looks with a weak WR1 (Kenny Golladay), and a guy who can’t stay on the field (Kadarius Toney). Robinson has a legitimate shot at leading the Giants in targets for 2022. 

Conclusion: Still available past the 13th round, Robinson sets up as a solid value given his big play ability and the potential high-floor that his overlooked volume is going to create. Get him cheap for your bench while you still can.

NEVER BELIEVE A WORD OUT OF SF  twitter.com/FieldYates/sta…

— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway)
Aug 31, 2022