š 3 Dicey WR Injuries (& How To React)
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we highlight three WR injuries shaking up draft boards, JT trade rumors, ADP movers, and more!
Thank you for offering JSN your wrist, but I donāt think he wants itā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by NFFC:
- 3 WR injuries shake up the draft board
- Buying/Selling ADP Movers: The Commanders are buzzy
- JT trade rumors
- Drafting from the 1.05: A WR stands out
- Itās 8/24. Take it away, Peter Overzet
Itās not even September yet, but injuries have arrived. Itās the dark underbelly of the preseason and something we must account for in our drafting plans.
Here are three unfortunate WR injuries that recently popped up and actionable takeaways for how to handle them in draftsā¦
šļø Terry McLaurin (Week 1 in doubt)
The Commanders star WR sprained his toe against the Ravens on Monday and the reporting surrounding the injury has been all over the place.
Head Coach Ron Rivera said yesterday that McLaurin will be āoff his feet for the next couple of daysā and sources say that there is optimism that he will be ready for Week 1.
On the other hand, Riveraās exact quote wasnāt exactly reassuring:
Other Twitter docs are not so bullish and think thereās a legitimate chance he misses, or is at least limited, for Week 1.
š¤ How to play it?
McLaurin currently goes near the 4-5 turn of drafts, but he should likely move down behind WRs like DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Aiyuk, into the middle of the fifth round.
Losing some early season production isnāt the end of the world, but we also want to properly account for the new levels of risk here. You can make a legitimate case that Jahan Dotson deserves to go a round or so higher now.
Iād prefer to let someone else take the McLaurin plunge (unless I get a big discount) and target Dotson instead.
šļø Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Early season in doubt)
The Seahawks first-round pick suffered a wrist injury in Saturdayās preseason game against the Cowboys and underwent surgery yesterday to repair the fracture.
The timeline is being āoptimisticallyā reported by Pete Carroll as anywhere from 3-4 weeks, which puts JSNās early-season availability very much in doubt.
š¤ How to play it?
This is a very big bummer for a player who had been dominating camp and the preseason.
The late-season breakout thesis is still very much intact, but fast starts are now off the table. The Seahawks have a bye in Week 5, so I wouldnāt be surprised to see the team play things cautiously with his return and let him rest up until Week 6.
Smith-Njigba is now sliding to the 6-7 turn of Underdog drafts, which seems like an appropriate downgrade.
DK Metcalf was already being aggressively drafted, but Tyler Lockett should certainly move up some:
JSN becomes a screaming target in home league drafts, though, where he is likely to fall even further. Grab him in the 8th or 9th, stash him, and thank us later.
šļø DJ Chark (Timeline TBD)
The Panthers veteran WR suffered a hamstring injury at Panthers practice yesterday:
š¤ How to play it?
This is a concerning setback for a 26-year-old who has struggled with injuries his entire career and missed 19 games over the past two seasons.
Iād put Chark on your āDo Not Draftā list until we get some more clarity on his timeline.
Rookie Jonathan Mingo looks like a massive bargain in lieu of this news and I suppose if you were an Adam Thielen stan (I am not) you could talk yourself into a bump there, as well:
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How much should we be reacting to preseason ADP movement? Do we buy or sell players at their new prices? Take it away, Ianā¦
August is a helluva drug for fantasy football diehards.
Not only is draft season in the air, but training camp updates and preseason action give the masses high-level āadjust the ranksā ammunition that hasnāt been readily available for quite some time.
Of course, the second-by-second nature of social media and reactions, in general, can cause many an overreaction to news that maybe didnāt warrant such a large adjustment.
What follows is a look at some of the biggest movers in average draft position (ADP) from August 1 to the present day ā and whether they are warranted.
š Riser: Commanders QB Sam Howell
- ADP (August 1): 197.2
- Current:Ā 181.2
Howell not only locked up the Commandersā QB1 job, but did so in style with 188-2-0 and 77-1-0 performances during the first two weeks of the preseason.
Thereās reason for optimism behind Howell as both a real-life and fantasy QB.
The rising second-year signal-callerās deep-ball goodness and 183-828-11 rushing line in his final season at North Carolina paint the picture of a fantasy-friendly QB, something he demonstrated at the NFL level with a QB7 finish in Week 18 last season.
Nobody is going to use a draft pick on Howell in traditional one-QB leagues, but he offers some legit upside as a LATE-round dart in best ball and Superflex formats.
Iāve preferred deploying a āfirst or lastā strategy when drafting QBs in best ball due to the position flying off the board at a ridiculously fast rate, and Howell has been someone Iāve enjoyed stacking with Terry McLaurin and/or Jahan Dotson when possible.
šØāāļø Verdict
Iām buying Howellās rise up the ranks thanks to his proven fantasy-friendly skill-set and confirmation that he will start the season ahead of Jacoby Brissett.
š Riser: Packers WR Jayden Reed
- ADP (August 1): 174.8
- Current:Ā 165
Heās expected to join Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in three-WR sets from day one if his preseason utilization is any indication.
Thereās a chance Reed is really good at football! He earned Tier 2 treatment in the Fantasy Life Rookie WR Supermodel and solid reviews from The Athleticās Dane Brugler in his ever-excellent āThe Beastā draft guide:
āA three-year starter at Michigan State, Reed was a perimeter receiver in offensive coordinator Jay Johnsonās offense. Although his senior year fell short of expectations because of injuries and the Spartansā offensive struggles, he accounted for 46 explosive plays (20-plus yards) over the past two seasons and became just the third player in school history with multiple punt return touchdowns in the same season. Reed has outstanding foot quickness and skillfully throttles his route speed to separate from coverage.
Despite dropping too many easy ones, his focus is heightened on contested windows, and he shows a knack for timing his leaps and snatching the football off the helmets of defensive backs. Overall, Reed will have a tougher time overcoming his slight size vs. NFL defensive backs, but his speed, route tempo and downfield ball skills are the ingredients of a potential NFL playmaker. With a few technical tweaks to his game, he has NFL starting ability (slot and outside) and adds value as a return man.ā
At this stage of the draft, itās hard enough to find a WR with a chance to work as one of the top-three target earners in their own offense ā let alone one who might also be pretty, pretty, pretty good at the game.
šØāāļø Verdict
Reed is one of the best late-round WR values in all of fantasy football even with this price bump. He, Donovan Peoples-Jones and DeVante Parker are my three favorite late-round WR darts of anyone going Round 14 or later.
More August ADP risers and fallers
š²Ā The Colts are fielding trade offers for Jonathan Taylor. Where could he land?
šĀ A Jets WR retires. Nice of him to make room for more former Packers WRs.
š£Ā The Niners announce their QB2. And itās not Trey Lance.
šŗ Tonight, Ian & Dwain go ALL IN to win $250k.Ā Two heads are better than one.
š®Ā 10 bold fantasy predictions. Ian brings the heat.
š¤Ā A rookie QB with a brand new suite of weapons.Ā Is the ceiling the roof, or the floor?
šĀ Which RB does Aaron Rodgers love more?Ā Seems clear here.
š¤Ā These 2 Ravens players are too cheap. Keep drafting them.
šŗļøĀ Want to plot out your drafts?Ā Our ADP grid makes it easy.
We donāt always get to decide the order of everything in our lives ā especially fantasy football draft order. But fear not, the Fantasy Life staff has you covered with an ongoing series covering strategy from every spot in the first round. Todayās draft position: The 1.05 with Matt LaMarca...
The No. 5 spot in fantasy drafts is a good one. Youāre going to get a top-tier player in the first round, and there should be some appealing options on the board in the second.
There are also multiple different avenues for you to explore, so all sorts of different roster constructions are on the table.
Overall, itās been one of my favorite draft slots so far this offseason.
Letās dive into how Iām attacking the fifth pick in redraft formatsā¦
šļø Start With the Last of the āEliteā Options
Thereās a pretty clear consensus among the top five picks this season. Justin Jefferson and JaāMarr Chase should be the 1.01 and 1.02, while Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, and Tyreek Hill should be the next three.
As the fifth person on the clock, that puts us in a really advantageous position. We donāt need to actually make a decision, but rather just scoop whatever player falls to us at No. 5.
Chris and Geoff made great points about McCaffrey and Kupp in the 1.03 and 1.04 writeups respectively, so allow me to focus on Hill.
Hill finished as the No. 2 receiver in PPR points last season, trailing only the consensus top pick in Jefferson. In terms of PPR points per game, he dips from No. 2 to No. 3.
Itās true that his fantasy numbers did wane down the stretch last year. He scored 15.7 PPR points or fewer in three straight games to end the season, which was well below his season average of 20.1.
Should that be any real cause for concern? I donāt think so.
Tua Tagovailoa didnāt suit up for two of those contests, and itās clear he wasnāt the same player by the end of the season. He suffered at least two concussions, but when he was on the field, he displayed an excellent connection with Hill.
Through the first 16 weeks, Hill ranked second in the league with a gaudy 32.0% target share. He also finished fifth in air yards share and was the clear leader among high-volume receivers in targets per route run.
Basically, when Hill was on the field with Tagovailoa, he had a greater chance of being targeted than any other player in football.
Of course, we all know what Hill is capable of doing once he gets the ball in his hands:
āļø Josh Jacobs as Anchor RB
In the second round, Iām likely looking to grab the best available receiver. Two players that stand out to me are Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith. Olaveās ADP is right around 20 across the industry, so thereās a chance heās already off the board. However, Smith has a good probability of being available.
The more exciting prospect is Jacobs in the third round. Heās been one of the biggest bargains of the offseason, checking in with an ADP of more than 25 in NFFC leagues and more than 30 on Underdog.
That figure will likely increase as we get closer to the start of the year, but the pre-draft rankings have a tremendous impact on where players get drafted.
Because Jacobs hasnāt gone until the middle or end of the third round, some people are going to be afraid to āreachā on him.
Donāt be one of those people.
Jacobs was the No. 3 running back in PPR scoring last year, trailing only McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. He turned in his most efficient season as a runner, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, and he caught at least 53 passes for the second straight year.
The Raiders ārewardedā Jacobs by placing the franchise tag on him, and after a brief holdout, heās expected to suit up for the teamās first game of the year.
Make no mistake about it ā this is a player who mightāve been a first-round pick if not for his contact situation.
