The Dads, Chads, and Brads are on blast…

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Nutrafol:

I initially planned to do a very masochistic preview of tonight’s epically bad Thursday Night Football game (30-point total!) where Bailey Zappe will square off against Mitch Trubisky, but fortunately for you all, there were enough noteworthy news items yesterday to sacrifice that exercise.

Let’s dig in…

🤥 Joshua Dobbs getting benched was fake news

Despite the team threatening to make a change at QB coming out of the bye, the Vikings did the prudent thing and announced that Dobbs will start Sunday in Las Vegas.

Fantasy takeaway: This will be our first time seeing Justin Jefferson in action with Dobbs. We have a bullish ranking on Jefferson (consensus WR7) and T.J. Hockenson (TE2) despite the shifting dynamics of the offense. Dobbs (QB14) is serviceable as well, but I’d prefer to play a guy like Jordan Love over him.

🤮 The Jets name Zach Wilson the starter

Credit to the Jets for keeping us on our toes, as always. They tried to pump fake us with the Brett Rypien signing yesterday, but they will instead run back into the arms of Zach Wilson, for better or worse (worse):

Zach Wilson -- benched in each of the past two seasons, most recently in late November in favor of Tim Boyle, who was released yesterday -- has been named the Jets' starting quarterback for Sunday's game vs. the Texans.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Dec 6, 2023

Fantasy takeaway: You know the drill here. Breece Hall is a back-end RB2 who you pray can rip off a big play, and Garrett Wilson is a volatile WR3 with WR1 upside and WR6 downside. Good luck.

🚑️ Christian Kirk done for the year

Technically, he’s expected to miss 6-8 weeks, but for fantasy purposes, his season is over. This is a brutal loss for the Jags, as Kirk has been their most consistent pass catcher by a significant margin.

Fantasy takeaway: Zay Jones will be the biggest beneficiary here, though keep an eye on rookie Parker Washington who impressed on MNF. It’s hard to trust anyone here, though, for as long as Trevor Lawrence is out.

🙏 Dallas Goedert set to return vs. Cowboys

Goedert, who hasn’t played since Week 9, will provide a big boost to the Eagles in their Week 14 divisional game vs. the Cowboys. Philly is coming off a bad loss at home vs. the Niners and is still fighting for the bye.

Fantasy takeaway: Goedert immediately slides in as a Top 10 TE. Start ‘em if you got ‘em.

💪 Reinforcements coming for the Chargers?

There are few teams more in desperate need of offensive help than the Los Angeles Chargers right now. Luckily, it seems like help is on the way:

The#Chargers are opening WR Joshua Palmer’s 21-day practice window, per sources. Some help on the way in the coming weeks for L.A.’s offense.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero)
Dec 6, 2023

Fantasy takeaway: Quentin Johnston and Jalen Guyton have failed to step up in Joshua Palmer’s absence. He’s worth a stash for the playoff run if you need WR depth.

🤔 The Bills opened the practice window for Dawson Knox

Bills TE Dawson Knox returned to practice yesterday after the Bills designated him to return from IR.

Fantasy takeaway: This is a significant piece of news as it pertains to Dalton Kincaid’s value. Kincaid only had one Top 12 week when Knox was active:

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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 14 of the fantasy football season. Below you’ll find Dwain’s thoughts on two players set up for a big week. Find all of our positional rankings here.

💥 Running Back

🥇 Tier 1 - Zack Moss

Moss only compiled 7.6 fantasy points in Week 13, but his underlying utilization numbers were elite. The veteran bogarted 91% of the team’s rushing attempts on his way to 20 totes and was on the field for 68% of the team’s passing plays.

Moss averages 24.2 opportunities and 18.3 fantasy points per contest when Jonathan Taylor hasn’t reached a 20% backfield. While getting high-end volume is enough to get excited about Moss, his efficiency has also been above expectations.

• Yards per attempt: 4.5 (11th out of 39 RBs with at least 100 carries)
• 10-plus yard attempts: 10.6% (12 of 39)
• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 19.9% (14 of 39) 

In Week 14, he will have the backfield all to himself once again and gets a salacious matchup against a Bengals defense that allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game (134). Cincinnati gives up the fifth most fantasy points per contest on the ground at 19.4 points.

Moss is a SMASH play as a top-six overall option and my RB3 in Week 14.

💥 Wide Receiver

🥈 Tier 2 - Nico Collins

Collins is on an absolute tear this year, averaging the 11th most fantasy points per game at the position (17.7). Since returning from a calf injury in Week 11, Collins has averaged 10.7 targets and 122 air yards per contest. Over that span, his average target share is 34%, with 23.7 fantasy points per game.

While keeping up that pace could be tricky, the small sample has some merit, considering Collins’ target share without Dell on the field this season is 31%. Of course, the Collins breakout isn’t coming out of nowhere; he made significant strides last season, upping his TPRR from 16 to 22%. 

C.J. Stroud is on pace to pass for over 5,000 yards and shatter the rookie record of 4,374 yards held by Andrew Luck, and Collins looks like the clear-cut No. 1. Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown and Robert Woods will all pitch in, but none of them have flashed the elite target-earning ability Collins has demonstrated.

The Jets won’t be an easy matchup, allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (192). However, quality offenses have blistered New York in recent weeks. The Bills dropped 32 points on them in Week 11, and Miami followed that up with 27 (excluding a pick-six that ran their final total to 34) in Week 12.

Don’t expect a 300-yard passing performance from the Texans, but they could push for 225 to 250 with Collins as the centerpiece. We saw both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle crest 100 receiving yards in Week 12. Collins has a shot to do the same and collect a score in Week 14.

Collins comes in 19 spots ahead of industry consensus as my No. 19 player overall and my WR10.

Note: We must monitor the weather with potential rain and high winds in the forecast. If we have downpour conditions and sustained winds at 20-plus mph, Collins will drop to high-end WR3 territory.

The Fantasy Life FREE Bet Tracker is already loaded with a handful of plays for Thursday Night Football, and Matt LaMarca wrote a comprehensive breakdown of the best ways to attack this game. Looking for a peek behind the curtain?…

Per LaMarca, “The low number on this game may scare you, but low totals have had no problem going under so far this season. Unders in games with a total of 38 points or less are 16-4-1 (+50.3% ROI), while the under has gone a perfect 3-0 on totals of 35.0 or fewer.

Not only that, those three unders have covered by an average of 11.3 points per game. As I discussed with Freedman on Monday’s Early Lines podcast, the sportsbooks struggle to get the numbers low enough for these outlier teams.”

💋 Taylor Swift doesn’t care what you think. Bang bang.

🤖 This RB is a…cybernetic organism? No one knows what it means, but it’s provocative.

📈 Risers and Fallers ahead of Week 14. Dwain has you covered.

⚖️ Are the Bills the best 6-6 team of all time? It makes sense when you see this.

📺 One more week until the Fantasy playoffs. No better team to prep you for the playoff push.

😅 Some football is better than none, right? Everything you need for TNF betting and DFS showdown slate.

🤣 Want to hear an absolutely wild take? David Carr has you covered.

📉 Did you draft Patrick Mahomes this year? I’m sorry…

🤷‍♂️ Are we in a time machine? The year is 2023 and Ezekiel Elliott is fantasy-viable.

👀 Not only is Zeke fantasy-viable…he may be the best bet to find paydirt tonight.

🗑️ The Panthers are a complete mess. What a story.

🤯 Can I interest you in the most consistent RB in football other than CMC? You have to see it to believe it.

Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called “Freedman’s Favorites”. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding “No”. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 14…

🌟 Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Eagles

• Cowboys: -3
• O/U: 52.5
• TT: 27.75

I highlighted Prescott as an MVP candidate in Sunday’s Betting Life Newsletter. He was slow to start the year, but in the seven games since his embarrassing three-INT performance against the 49ers in a 42-10 road loss, he has passed for 2,173 yards and 21 TDs with just two INTs and added 29-129-2 rushing. In all but one of those games, he has been a top-three fantasy QB. 

The Cowboys need a victory to have a shot of winning the NFC East, and this is a situational smash spot for Prescott. In the regular season, at home, he’s 32-22-1 ATS (12.9% ROI). As a favorite, he’s 47-32-2 ATS (14.7% ROI). In division, 27-11 ATS (38.4% ROI). And as a divisional home favorite … 14-4 ATS (52.5% ROI, per Action Network).

Plus, the Cowboys have three extra days to rest and prepare off Thursday Night Football. 

The Eagles are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (22.1 FFPG), and Prescott had 374 yards and three TDs passing against them in Week 9.

🌟 Zack Moss (Colts) at Bengals

• Colts: -1
• O/U: 40.5
• TT: 20.75

No. 1 RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) is unlikely to play, and Moss has 920 yards and five TDs on 177 carries and 18 targets in nine games with a snap rate of more than 50% since joining the Colts last year.

The Bengals are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (-0.038).

Zack Moss played 94% of snaps last week

Led the league with 7 attempts inside the 10

21 total touches and ran routes on 68% of DBs

Last week was a disappointment but all the ingredients for a big game were there

He's $5900 against the Bengals with Jonathan Taylor sidelined

— Dave Loughran (@Loughy_D)
Dec 5, 2023

🌟 Mike Evans (Buccaneers) at Falcons

• Buccaneers: +2.5 
• O/U: 39
• TT: 18.25

With 7-162-1 receiving last week, Evans now has 10 seasons in a row with 1,000 yards. In 2019, I made the case for why Evans will be in the Hall of Fame, and I stand by it now: He has been one of the consistently best WRs of his era, and with 9.8 yards per target this year, he’s still as explosive as ever.

Evans had 6-82-1 receiving on eight targets in Week 7 against the Falcons, who could be without CBs A.J. Terrell (concussion), Jeff Okudah (undisclosed), and Mike Hughes (hand).

 🌟 D.J. Moore (Bears) vs. Lions

• Bears: +3.5
• O/U: 40.5
• TT: 18.5

Moore finally got back QB Justin Fields in Week 11, which makes him one of the league’s most dangerous WRs. In their seven full games together this year, Moore has 45-741-6 receiving on 56 targets.

Off the Week 13 bye, Moore and the Bears should be rested and prepared.

The Lions are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (48.6%), and Moore had 7-96-1 receiving on nine targets against them in Fields’ Week 11 return to action.

🌟 Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs. Eagles

• Cowboys: -3
• O/U: 52.5
• TT: 27.75

Since the Week 7 bye, Ferguson is No. 2 on the Cowboys with an 81% route rate and 37 targets, which he has turned into 25-308-4 receiving in six games. For the season, Ferguson trails only Tyreek Hill (12) with his 11 targets inside the 10-yard line.

Even with new S Kevin Byard (acquired via trade with the Titans in October), the Eagles have continued to allow TEs to put up fantasy points after losing SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson, FS Marcus Epps, and LBs Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards this offseason: Ferguson had 7-91-1 receiving on 10 targets against them in Week 9.

me                           the new york
                                         jets
                  🤝
    getting judged by everyone
for going back to our shitty ex

— Linda™ (@Lindellions)
Dec 6, 2023