There’s a whole new meaning to Sunday Scaries this week…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Webex:

• Another QB is out for Week 7
• Biggest Week 7 Fantasy Questions: Lamar Jackson MVP?
• It’s LOVE/HATE day: Time for Tua
• QUICK HITTER: TAIL or FADE. Backing the Bucs?
• Matchup of the Week: Chargers at Chiefs
• Best Bets of the Week. 
• It’s 10/20. Take it away, Kendall Valenzuela…

As if Week 7 wasn’t already bad enough with six (yeah, you heard me) SIX teams on bye, there have also been some good and not-so-good injury updates that will definitely be impacting your fantasy teams. Just as a refresher, here are the teams you won’t be seeing this weekend:

• Carolina Panthers (Sorry, Adam Thielen managers)
• Cincinnati Bengals (No, Ja’Marr Chase can’t get you out of this one)
• Dallas Cowboys (We still love you CeeDee)
• Houston Texans (Your favorite QB streamer is GONE)
• New York Jets (Basically a bye every week, AMIRIGHT)
• Tennessee Titans (Kings need rest too)

Now for some of the injury updates that you’ve been waiting for, followed along with different players you can pivot to if we get worse news by Sunday.

GOOD LUCK.

🚨 Jimmy Garoppolo is OUT

Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will not be available in Week 7 during their game against the Chicago Bears.

This all stems from the back injury that Garoppolo sustained in Week 6 against the New England Patriots. As the cruel injury gods keep making their way through the NFL, this Week 7 matchup will now feature two backups — whoever the Raiders decide to replace Garoppolo with (between Brian Hoyer or Aiden O’Connell) and Bears quarterback Justin Fields’ replacement in Tyson Bagent.

Potential Streamers:

• Russell Wilson vs. Packers
• Baker Mayfield vs. Falcons

🚨 Which direction are the 49ers trending?

We all have our eyes on San Francisco 49ers stars Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel heading into their Monday Night Football matchup against the Minnesota Vikings.

McCaffrey (oblique) and Samuel (shoulder) did not practice on Thursday, but it was reported that that’s not necessarily something to worry too much about.

Head Coach Kyle Shanahan did give us good news, saying that McCaffrey’s MRI was "encouraging" and that he is considered day-to-day.

If you are still nervous that the news could start trending in the wrong direction, here are some RB and WR streamers to consider (even if you don’t have Samuel or CMC)...

Potential Streamers:

• Zach Evans vs. Steelers
• Rashee Rice vs. Chargers

It’s Friday, so that means Ian is here with his biggest fantasy-relevant questions ahead of Week 7. Here. We. Go.

🤔 Who have been the league’s best QBs at throwing the deep ball?

Chicks dig the long ball. Maybe? I’m a dude and think the long ball is cool, so I guess dudes dig the long ball as well. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, of course.

Here are the top five QBs in yards per attempt on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield among 30 QBs with 10 such attempts this season:

• Jared Goff (20.6)
• C.J. Stroud (20)
• Tua Tagovailoa (19.9)
• Matthew Stafford (15.7)
• Russell Wilson (15.6)

Now, you might be thinking, “Why do I keep hearing about how good Stafford is playing when his box scores remain rather mid.”

The answer from at least Week 6: Drops. Two of them specifically on what should have been TDs.

It’s never good to fully count out T.J. Watt and company, but this remains a pass defense that WRs haven’t had much of a problem with. Overall, only the Seahawks, Chargers and Commanders have allowed more half-PPR points per game to opposing WRs than the Steelers.

Fire up Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua as the WR1s they’ve both been all season, while I’m also treating Stafford as a recommended QB1 start thanks to the potential for his TD rate to move in a more fantasy-friendly direction moving forward.

❓ Who are the best streaming DST options to get me through the next few weeks?

Three groups stand out when looking at the easiest DST strength of schedules over the next four weeks of action:

• Colts (Browns, Saints, Panthers, Patriots): Three bottom-10 offenses is hard to overly complain about, and even Week 8’s relatively tougher spot against Derek Carr and company isn’t completely unconquerable.
• Seahawks (Cardinals, Browns, Ravens, Commanders): They get the 29th, 23rd and 28th-ranked offenses following this week’s matchup against the Cardinals, which, let’s face it, also looks more than fine on paper.
• Raiders (Bears, Lions, Giants, Jets): Maxx Crosby and company have the third- and first-best matchups sandwiching a tough Week 8 matchup against the Lions.

👀 Is Ezekiel Elliott ironically averaging exactly as many yards per carry as Tony Pollard?

Sure is: Both RBs have averaged just 3.9 yards per carry this season.

Shoutout to Zeke for actually busting a 74-yard TD last week … but it was overturned on a holding penalty.

Does any of this mean you should even consider starting Zeke this week? Absolutely not, but did you learn something new? Probably!

👑 Is Lamar Jackson deserving of MVP chatter?

It’s hard to overly deny the claims at this point. Jackson continues to be lethal week in and week out on the ground while also putting forward arguably the best pure passing performance of his career despite his receivers generally making life more difficult than it has to be.

• PFF pass grade: 96.2 (No. 4 among 35 qualified QBs)
• Completion percentage over expected: +4.8% (No. 6)
• Adjusted completion rate: 78.9% (No. 6)
• Yards per attempt: 7.2 (tied for No. 10)

This offensive line has been banged up all season long. The team's only two losses have come in overtime and in a Steelers game that saw the team's receivers drop a single-week season-high seven passes.

LaMVP chatter is deserved; don’t be surprised if Sunday’s potential shootout provides more goodness on the ground as well as through the air for Fantasy’s QB7 on a per-game basis.

What Other Questions Does Ian Have for Week 7?

⚙️ Webex One: Everything AI, Hybrid Work & Customer Experience

A rare opportunity to see the future!!

All season long our partnership with Webex has allowed Fantasy Life to push collaboration and innovation to new heights!

Now Webex is offering you the chance to hear from the biggest names in AI, experience breakthrough audio and video intelligence, and see how they are revolutionizing hybrid work and customer experience.

Webex One, October 24-26, is a star-studded event featuring visionary speakers like Robert DeNiro, Neil DeGrasse Tyson, Ariana Huffington and more! In fact, Fantasy Life CEO Eliot Crist will be sharing how Fantasy Life uses Webex technology to run the fastest-growing Fantasy Football content company in the industry.

Webex One offers a FREE virtual pass to those who cannot make it to Anaheim in person! If you want to learn about the role AI will play in hybrid work and more, sign up here for your free virtual pass!

Maybe Eliot will even offer up a tip or two on the Thursday Night Football game!

GET YOUR VIRTUAL PASS HERE

Are the Chargers finally going to be able to have nice things? Will someone other than Travis Kelce step up in this Chiefs offense? There are a lot of questions that need to be answered in this AFC West showdown, and hopefully, this is the week we get just that. But who better to break down Fantasy Life’s Game of the Week than the one and only Chris Allen…

So, in a normal universe, I’d feel great about this game.

With a 48-point total at the start of the week, I’d bet the over without hesitation and start looking at player props. On one side, we’ve got the reigning Super Bowl champs. While the Chiefs offense hasn’t looked as dynamic as it has in years past, the Chargers have a bottom-10 secondary. Meanwhile, LA is averaging the fifth-most passing yards per game. It sets up like a contest full of fantasy value.

But we live in the “Chargers can’t have nice things” universe. The “usually accurate Justin Herbert just misses Keenan Allen on a double move” universe.

So, of course, I’m somewhat skeptical. I’m expecting something like an Isaiah Spiller house call to happen. But if we’re going to break down the Chargers’ offense, let’s start with the passing game.

⚡️Chargers Week 7 Outlook

We (including the Chargers’ coaching staff) looked to Quentin Johnston as an option to help fill the void left by Mike Williams. Week 4 (their first game without Williams) showed some promise, as the rookie got his first start and caught the first deep pass thrown his way. He whiffed on his subsequent targets, but it was a (minor) step forward nonetheless. However, out of the bye, he took a (major) step backward.

• Route Rate: 71.0% (Week 4), 47.7% (Week 6)
• Target Share: 12.5%, 5.4%
• TPRR: 13.6%, 9.5%
• Air Yard Share: 18.3%, 16.7%

Meanwhile, Josh Palmer has run more routes than Allen (just one more, but still), the only other WR with more than one slot target, and he’s matched Allen in looks downfield. Both Palmer and Gerald Everett have seen their usage increase post-bye. Johnston can barely make it on the field. Everett finally getting red-zone work gives him streaming viability, and Palmer is a mid-range WR3, per our rankings. So until we see more from Johnston, he’s best left on the waiver wire.

For the Chiefs’ offense, the overarching thought is things haven’t been as fruitful for fantasy as they have in years past. But there is at least one constant.

🏹 Chiefs Week 7 Outlook

Patrick Mahomes still ranks in the Top 6 for most passing efficiency metrics. Minus his bizarre two-turnover game against the Jets (his first time since 2018 throwing more than one interception without also throwing multiple touchdowns), No. 15 has been a Top 7 fantasy QB in half of his starts. Only Herbert (4) and Tua Tagovailoa (3) have similar marks.

But through six weeks, six different receivers have five or more targets from Mahomes. None of them have made it into the Top 12 in any week this season. Only one has ranked as a WR2. Let’s talk about Rashee Rice for a second.

Rice started his NFL career with a touchdown on opening night on five targets. And after Kadarius Toney dropped and deflected his way into the doghouse, we expected more from the rookie receiver. But he only earned two targets the following week. Rice only ran a route on 33.1% of Mahomes’ dropbacks over the next month. So, maybe I’m missing something here.

Because when Rice is on the field, Mahomes looks for Rice on 31.5% of his routes. To put that rate in context, Stefon Diggs has a 31.3% TPRR. Cooper Kupp’s sits at 30.9%.

And when Rice gets the ball, good things happen. Rice has 148 yards AFTER the catch. Jahan Dotson has 140 yards, period. And if we’re giving Kelce so much praise for being a chain mover, Rice should receive similar accolades. He has five fewer first downs (13) than Kelce on almost half the amount of targets (46 to 28).

Rice has been efficient and capable of creating separation on his minimal usage. With as quickly as he’s been able to demonstrate an ability to be productive and stand out amongst his peers, Rice should be the WR to start from the Chiefs’ passing game.

More Notes on the Chargers-Chiefs Game!

#LOVEHATE is upon us, and Matthew Berry is here to take you through the Week 7 NFL slate!

Speaking of Week 7, we are eatin’ good in the neighborhood this Sunday when the Fantasy Football Pregame Show broadcasts live from the Applebee’s on Roosevelt Boulevard in Philadelphia.

The restaurant opens at 10:30 am and the Pregame show starts at 11.

Come on out early to start your tailgate party with Matthew this Sunday and ask your sit/start questions ahead of the big Sunday Night Football matchup between the Dolphins and Eagles.

Watch the show live on Peacock and on the NBC Sports YouTube channel.

🚀 5 over-performing fantasy STARS. Will it last? The verdict is in.

👀 Should we be worried about Jahan Dotson? Idk what to do with this information.

💰Four WRs primed for big Week 7s. Totals so low it’s hard not to pick’em…

📺 You’ve got Week 7 questions, we’ve got answers. Our own WR1 joins us to break it all down.

👑  The NFL rushing yards leaders through six weeks. We see you, Zack Moss.

⚾️ We love sports crossovers. Imagine pitching to D’Andre Swift, lol.

✍️ Tired: stacking the same game in DFS as everyone else. Wired: Finding elite pivots that have million-dollar upside.

💳 Of course, we have another Mike McDaniel meme. He’s truly a national treasure.

🧾️ Jerry Jeudy spoke about the Steve Smith situation. Now what happens?

🙏 Some good signs from Lions practice. We really need him this week.

You like betting, we like betting, and Geoff LOVES betting. Lucky for you, he’s here to spread the good word with some seriously enticing best bets ahead of Week 7. Lock in.

💰 Christian Watson over 52.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Fantasy Life Aggregate projection: 55.5 receiving yards
• Play to: 53.5 receiving yards

Even in a game where Jordan Love threw for just 182 yards, with an abysmal 53% completion percentage, Watson was still able to go for 91 yards receiving against the Raiders in Week 5 – his first game of the season (hamstring) where he played a full complement of downs.

The glass-half-empty guy says 91 yards on three catches is unsustainable production, and Love’s inefficiency will catch up with him (and over bettors). The glass-half-full guy says backing a 6’5, 200+ lbs, 4.36 sec/40M wide receiver to go over on sub-50 yard props is low-hanging fruit worth taking.

The glass-half-empty guy has a point, but with Denver on tap this week, we are leaning toward a glass-half-full guy.

Watson had a 25% target share and 76% air-yard share from Week 5 and faces off a Broncos defense who are dead last in yards per pass attempt against (8.2) and last in PFF coverage grade (45.5).

I fully expect this prop to rise as the week progresses but backing the over on Watson at anything under 53.5 yards makes a ton of sense against this weak Denver defense.

This is also a great spot to ladder bet the Packers WR1 through 75+ and 100+ yards when BetMGM releases their milestone lines later in the week.

💰 Chargers +5.5 (-110, BetMGM)

• Play to: Chargers +4.5

The fact this number hasn’t moved in favor of the Chiefs – even after another heartbreaking Chargers loss – speaks volumes to me. While the Chiefs remain big favorites, clearly, the market hasn’t seen enough from the Chiefs to warrant pushing them through a couple of key numbers (6.5 or 7.5) and think there is a chance this game remains closer than it may seem on paper.

It’s likely for good reason as well. Since they drafted Justin Herbert, the Chargers have been great at keeping games close against the Chiefs. For his career, Herbert is 4-1 ATS when Mahomes is under center on the other side, with the Chargers’ average margin of loss being just 4.2 points in those games.

Extending that narrative a little further, the Chargers, in general, under Brandon Staley, haven’t been great at closing out games but have been great at keeping them close. Dating back to last season, six of their last seven regular-season losses have come by three points or less.

If we look at the Chiefs holistically, the fact they managed just 19 points last week against a historically bad defense is a touch concerning. On the season, they have been held to 20 points or less three times, and their receivers have combined for the most drops on offense this year (15) in the league (a fact not lost on the Chiefs as they traded for Mecole Hardman early this week).

I like taking the points even down to 4.5 with Los Angeles, who we don’t need to rely on for the win this week and have a great recent track record of playing close games with the Chiefs.

More Bets for Week 7!

Powered by beehiiv