🔥 MVP Race Is HEATING Up!
The field is WIDE open...
Why lose money now betting on actual NFL games when we can lose money in the future by betting on the MVP award?
In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by the Fantasy Life Discord:
- MVP Market: it’s officially Brocktober!
- Week 5 Takeaways: The Jets might be…good?
- Early Lines: Yet another game in London…
- Regression! The Vikings are now paying last year’s bill.
- MNF: Raiders vs. Packers!
- It’s 10/9: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
With only Monday Night Football remaining, we’re now officially past the quarter point of the 2023 season.
With that in mind, I want to take a look at my favorite of all the NFL markets: Most Valuable Player.
🏆 2023 MVP Odds
Here are the top five players in the market listed by the best odds available for each guy (as of 11:30 pm ET on Sunday), followed by some notes on each.
- Patrick Mahomes: +500 (DraftKings)
- Tua Tagovailoa: +500 (BetMGM)
- Josh Allen: +700 (FanDuel)
- Jalen Hurts: +750 (PointsBet)
- Brock Purdy: +1000 (DraftKings)
🏹 Patrick Mahomes: +500 (DraftKings)
He already has two MVPs, he has won four games in a row, and his one loss was…
In Week 1…
Without TE Travis Kelce…
By only one point.
Mahomes has the momentum, the Chiefs (seemingly) have the favor of the league, fans, and MVP voters, and their toughest remaining non-divisional games — against the Dolphins, Eagles, Bills, and Bengals — are all either at a neutral site or in Kansas City.
I have a position on Mahomes at +500 in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker and regret not investing in the offseason at longer odds. Mahomes feels somewhat inevitable.
🐬 Tua Tagovailoa: +500 (BetMGM)
The Dolphins are tied with the Chiefs atop the AFC with a 4-1 record, and they have a prolific offense.
Tagovailoa is No. 3 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.205, per RBs Don’t Matter).
If the Dolphins beat the Chiefs in Frankfurt in Week 9, Tagovailoa will likely head into the Week 10 bye as the MVP frontrunner.
I have an MVP position on Tagovailoa at +2200 from the offseason.
Josh Allen: +700 (FanDuel)
Allen entered Week 5 as the frontrunner, but his loss to the Jaguars in London has set him back.
Given that the Bills are 3-2 and still have road games remaining against the Bengals, Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers, and Dolphins — as well as home games against the Jets and Cowboys — I think it will be hard for Allen to get enough wins to claim the award.
🦅 Jalen Hurts: +750 (PointsBet)
Hurts and the Eagles have taken care of business on their way to a 5-0 record … sort of.
They’ve had a relatively friendly stretch of games to open the year (Patriots, Vikings, Buccaneers, Commanders, Rams) — and they’ve won — but Hurts is yet to exhibit an MVP-like dominance.
And his failure to stockpile production early in the year might come back to haunt him later, because the Eagles have a brutal stretch of games after the Week 10 bye (at Chiefs, vs. Bills, vs. 49ers, at Cowboys, at Seahawks).
I have an MVP position on Hurts at +1200 from the offseason.
⛏️ Brock Purdy: +1000 (DraftKings)
I’m of two minds on Purdy. I don’t believe that he’s a top QB. I think he benefits from the scheme of HC Kyle Shanahan and the playmaking ability of his numerous high-end pass catchers.
And yet I’m also skeptical that his circumstances will be held against him by MVP voters if he has MVP-ish stats.
Here’s what I wrote about Purdy in yesterday’s Betting Life Newsletter, ahead of his Sunday Night Football matchup with the Cowboys.
“Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A (10.0) and composite EPA + CPOE (0.249). Both of those stats are highly correlated with how players finish in MVP voting … but he might not have the raw production to warrant the award. He’s on pace for just 21.25 TDs passing.
The last time a QB won the MVP award with fewer than 25 TDs passing was in 1987, when John Elway had 19 in a strike-shortened 12-game campaign. Before that, 1976 — when Bert Jones … for the Baltimore COLTS — had 24 passing TDs in 14 games … because the league didn’t move to a 16-game season until 1978.
So if Purdy doesn’t start accumulating the raw stats, we’ll be asking him to do something that has never been done before to win the MVP — and I’m not a fan of asking guys to give me historical performances in order for me to win a bet.”
Well, Purdy had 252 yards and 4 TDs passing against the Cowboys. With that kind of performance, I now think he should be the MVP frontrunner.
And I should also say this, in all fairness: There might be a little bit of wish-casting here. I’ve had a terrible betting season so far — but if Purdy wins MVP then my year will be a LOT better.
But it’s not as if my relative bullishness on Purdy is anything new. For months, I’ve thought he was a viable MVP candidate.
I have an MVP position on Purdy at +5000 from the offseason. I also have a +8000 MVP position on 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (acquired after Week 2) — but I now believe that Purdy is much more likely to win the award.
Note: The five MVP positions I’ve mentioned above are all in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker and are the only MVP bets I have.
Here are four bigger-picture takeaways specifically from Week 5 from Geoff Ulrich and Matthew Freedman.
⬇️ Bills Lose in London
Entering Week 5, the Bills were No. 1 in the market-based power ratings, such as those provided by Mike Beuoy at Inpredictable and Ben Baldwin on social media.
With a rating of +7.3 (indicating that they were +7.3 points better than an average team on a neutral field), they were +0.3 points above the 49ers (+7, No. 2) and +0.8 points above the Chiefs (+6.5, No. 3) — and that just felt way too high.
In fact, I highlighted them in the Week 5 Thursday Betting Life Newsletter as a team that I was low on relative to the market.
With a 3-2 record, the Bills aren’t bad. They’re still one of the best teams in the league. But it’s unlikely that they’re going to run away with the AFC East and the No. 1 seed in the conference.
They’re very much not a tier above the Chiefs and maybe even the Dolphins and Ravens.
🐯 The Bengals Bounce Back
In Week 4, the lookahead line for the Bengals at Cardinals in Week 5 was Bengals -7.5.
After the Cardinals lost respectably to the 49ers (35-16) and the Bengals lost disgracefully to the Titans (27-3), the line reopened at -5.5, moved to -4.5, got hammered down to -3.5, and then settled in at -3, where it stayed for most of the week except for a brief period when it tested -2.5 and was quickly bet back to -3.
A one-week adjustment from -7.5 to -3 — without the absence of a starting QB — is massive. And in retrospect, it was an overreaction, as the Bengals captured a 34-20 victory.
We can’t say yet that the Bengals are all the way back — but in Week 5 they looked much more like their 2021-22 selves than the Weeks 1-4 version.
☄️ The Patriots are cratering
New England has now lost two games in a row and sits at 1-4 on the year. Over their last two games, New England has now been outscored 72-3. Mac Jones has a 54% completion rate, a sub 6.0 yards per attempt metric, and 4 INTs over his last six NFL quarters.
This is significant for betting as the allure of Bill Belichick is still likely to keep the Patriots odds semi-inflated in the marketplace for at least a while — just like they were the last two weeks against Dallas and New Orleans.
If Bailey Zappe comes in for a game that may even cause people to get semi-bullish on this team for a week (again). The situation is a little sad given how long and excellent the Patriots’ run has been, but it really does appear like Rome is on fire.
A re-rating of New England from a marketplace perspective is overdue.
✈️ Are the Jets about to make a run?
If you wrote off the Jets after they lost Aaron Rodgers, you may want to reconsider that position.
Their defense has now landed three turnovers in each of their last two games (three INTs against KC; three fumbles against Denver) and their social media team was in mid-season form after the 31-21 win over Denver.
Zach Wilson isn’t perfect but over the last two weeks, he’s completed 72% of his passes and is averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 20.0 yards rushing per game. Those are numbers Bryce Young, Mac Jones and Daniel Jones would kill for.
Oh, and this year they have a Hulk — welcome back Breece Hall (22-177-1).
I placed a small wager on the Jets over 5.5 team total last week (it’s in our free bet tracker) and even at 6.5, they may be worth going over on given the weak schedule (Patriots, Commanders, Raiders, Giants) they have left.
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It’s never too early to start thinking about Week 6. Geoff Ulrich breaks down a couple of lines to consider pouncing on early in the week.
As you are reading this, Week 5 is mostly in the books. It’s always good to give yourself a break and take some time to reevaluate things after 10+ games and a long Sunday of television watching — and let’s not forget we still have the Packers @ Raiders to look forward to on Monday Night football.
However, with NFL betting lines being so sharp, one of the biggest advantages you can gain as a bettor is to try and grab some early CLV (closing line value) before big moves happen later in the week.
With that in mind, here are two early Week 6 lines to look at and potentially grab before the spreads or totals shift dramatically later in the week.
⬇️ Play for a low-scoring game in London
The total for this game is one that stuck out to me immediately in my first scan. Baltimore has been an under-machine with Lamar Jackson/Jim Harbaugh. The team has gone 35-22 to the under since 2020 — they are also 4-1 to the under in 2023 after their Week 5 loss to the Steelers.
Both defenses rank inside the top 12 in overall defensive DVOA and the Ravens, as a squad, have been getting much healthier of late (Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams are both back as of Week 5).
This line opened at 42.0 but now sits at 41.0, or lower, at some books (so it’s already moved lower). And, as we get closer to game time, I would not be shocked to see the total dip under 40.0. I posted an early under 41.0 play in our free bet tracker Saturday night and I would half-expect those 41.0 totals may dry up quickly Monday a.m.
This is an under I would likely want to play at anything above 40.0.
🐶 Buy into the Browns
One of the first spreads that jumped out to me when looking ahead for Week 6 was the Browns and the fact they were getting +3.0 points at home — while coming off a bye. Yes, they are playing one of the top teams in the NFL in San Francisco, but the Browns have been an absolute nightmare for opposing teams to this point.
Cleveland ranks 2nd in pressure rate and in the three games that Deshaun Watson has started, they have a +41 point differential. The Browns have allowed just 3.2 yards per carry against to this point in the year and should be able to do the one thing most 49ers opponents have not been able to accomplish to date, which is hold up Christian McCaffrey.
Obviously, what happened on Sunday Night Football affected this line greatly when it opened on Monday. And now that San Francisco has demolished a previous powerhouse in Dallas, many people will be moving them up to the top spot in their power rankings — with 49ers euphoria potentially even giving us a shot at CLE +4.5 or better.
If this spread does climb — and given the number of 49ers tweets on my timeline right now, it feels like it will — grabbing the points with Cleveland at anything above 4.0 feels like a good buy early spot for Week 6.
🙂 The Falcons still refuse to script the first 15 plays. Must be why Desmond Ridder continues to suck in the first half.
🤮 I wonder if Tom would be interested in coming back? The Patriots might be the worst team in the league.
📉 Regression so pure it tastes like rubbing alcohol: 11-0 last year, 1-4 this year…
🤑 One of the best betting wins you’ll see this season. I’ll take “things you love to see” for $500, Alex.
🧐 I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but… sometimes it feels like a different set of rules applies to this team???
🎻 This game was a symphony of suck. Getting into the redzone ain’t the same as scoring points.
🎶 Coach Prime and Nick Saban converse: “I can’t get no satisfaction.”
⚰️ Thanks for reminding me, Darrell. I will go to my grave thinking that the over should’ve hit.
💰 Christian McCaffrey scores yet another TD. I wish that were my bankroll, for the love of the gambling gods!
🤝 They say that imitation is the highest form of flattery. Kyle Shanahan imitates Ben Johnson imitates Kyle Shanahan…
Even though we’re already looking ahead to Week 6, we still have Monday Night Football between the Raiders and Packers to celebrate. Here to break it down from a betting perspective is Matt LaMarca.
The Packers will travel to Sin City to take on the Raiders on Monday Night Football. It may not be the most marquee matchup of the week, but it should at least be entertaining. The current betting line separates these squads by less than a field goal, while the total sits at a respectable 46.0 points.
That suggests a back-and-forth affair with a handful of scoring.
Neither of these squads is off to a particularly good start. The Packers are sitting at 2-2 but are coming off a thumping by the Lions in Week 4. The Raiders have just one win this season, which came all the way back in Week 1 vs. the Broncos.
Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s break down all the betting angles for Monday Night Football.
🧀 Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Raiders -2.5 (-105; BetMGM)
- Total: 46.0
- Moneylines: Packers +110/Raiders -130
This number initially opened as a pick’em, but it has steadily moved in the Raiders’ direction all week. The number is up to Raiders -2.5 at most locations, but 2.0 is still available at some spots.
Personally, I think the Raiders are the correct side.
The one thing that the Packers have going for them is a significant rest advantage. They played on Thursday Night Football last week, so they’ve had a full 11 days off before this matchup. That said, teams with comparable rest advantages haven’t historically smashed. They’re 203-203-10 dating back to 2005 when playing a team on normal rest.
The bigger impact is that the extra time off should help the Packers get a bit healthier. Only two players missed practice on Friday, with Elgton Jenkins and Jaire Alexander both on track to suit up after missing the past two games. David Bahkiari was unfortunately lost to a season-ending injury, but other than that, this team is trending in the right direction healthwise.
The question is — will that matter?
The Packers have not been a particularly impressive team. One of their wins was against the lowly Bears, while the other was a massive comeback against the Saints after Derek Carr got hurt.
If you exclude that game vs. the Bears, the Packers offense ranks merely 21st in EPA/play. They’ve had virtually no running game to speak of, ranking 25th in rushing success rate, while they’ve been a bit more successful through the air.
The Raiders offense hasn’t been any better — they’ve actually been worse — but the team will benefit from the return of Jimmy Garoppolo. He represents a significant upgrade over Aiden O’Connell, who made his first career start last week vs. the Raiders.
Garoppolo has historically been an excellent investment as a small favorite or underdog. When laying less than three points, he’s 17-9 ATS during the regular season. Most of that comes from his tenure with the 49ers, but he’s 1-1 in that split as a member of the Raiders.
The sharps also seem to prefer the Raiders in this spot. They’ve received 60% of the dollars on just 48% of the bets (per the Action Network), and while that’s not a huge discrepancy, it does jive with the line movement. This is probably not a game that I’ll actually play, but the Raiders feel like the correct side.