If the Lions win the truthers will tell us their colors are “kinda purple”…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

We’ve arrived at the Conference Championships. 

There are only three games left in the season and two of them are today, so let’s make the most of it.

As far as overnight news, Matt LaMarca has you covered in the Morning Download with the latest updates on who is and isn’t playing today.

And because we’ve analyzed these teams from every single angle this week, I want to share some of my favorite angles for today’s games.

💰 My favorite prop: Brock Purdy higher than 276.5 passing yards

I included this one in my Pick ‘Em piece this week and love it even more now. Not only will Purdy have Deebo Samuel back at his disposal, but he has a dream matchup against a Lions defense that has given up the third most fantasy points to QBs this year:

Not sold? The last five QBs to face the Lions have all thrown for 345 or more yards. 

💸 My favorite bet: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Under 44.5

Three reasons this is a solid bet via LaMarca’s Sharp Report:

• The Ravens have the best defense in football (finished the year 2nd in EPA/play defensively)
• The Chiefs love the under (they're 13-6 to the under this season and their games go under by an average of -6.4 points per game)
• 44.0 is a key number, which makes this .5 point very important

💎 My favorite Hidden Gem DFS play: Ravens RB, Justice Hill

Before the playoffs started, I called Hill our generation’s Lombardi Lenny or Jerick McKinnon–the “backup” RB who morphs into a bellcow back for a team that advances to the Super Bowl.

Things got off to a good start in the Divisional Round, where he led the Ravens backfield in snaps, rush attempts, and routes. 

As Ian notes here, the Chiefs have actually been most vulnerable to RBs relative to other pass catchers and Hill has caught ten balls for 106 yards over the past three games. 

He’s only $4800 on DraftKings and free in Underdog Drafts.

For another Hill angle to attack, check out Bets From The Group Chat below.

❓ The biggest question: How much will Mark Andrews play?

We mostly know what to expect from these four teams at this point, but how much Andrews will play in his first game back after coming off IR is a legitimate question mark.

Chris Allen broke it down in yesterday’s newsletter, specifically as it pertains to Isaiah Likely:

“The Chiefs’ perimeter corners can stifle most aerial attacks. Per TruMedia, they allowed the second-lowest competition percentage to outside receivers all season (51.2%). Plus, Jackson ranked in the Top 3 in passing success rate and EPA per play with 2 TE personnel packages on the field. While Baltimore hasn’t leaned on 12 personnel in recent weeks, this matchup favors using both options to keep the offensive moving.”

🧚 Best storyline: Which conspiracy was true?

By this time tomorrow, we’ll know whether the Super Bowl was rigged for the Chiefs because of Taylor Swift or rigged for the Ravens because the Super Bowl logo is purple.

I pray for our society. 

Enjoy the games…

🛠️ Everything you need for Conference Championships Sunday.

Read on for more info in the Morning Download on the 49ers injury report, Kadarius Toney, and the return of Mark Andrews.

For everything else you need for Sunday—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 1:30 pm ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

And then there were four. There are just three games left in the 2023-24 season, and two of them will take place on Sunday. Things get started with the Chiefs taking on the Ravens in the AFC Championship, while the 49ers will host the Lions in the NFC Championship.

The four remaining teams are in decent shape from an injury perspective, but Matt LaMarca gets you caught up on everything you need to know.

📰 49ers Injury Report is Immaculate

The 49ers dealt with some serious injury scares in their last contest. Deebo Samuel exited in the first quarter, while Arik Armstead and Dre Greenlaw were both dealing with minor injuries. All three players have been removed from the injury report, so they’ll be good to go on Sunday.

That’s a big problem for the Lions. San Francisco struggled last week, but they’ve been basically unstoppable with Deebo in the lineup this season. They’ve averaged more than 32 points per game with Samuel fully available, and they were first in the league in EPA/play offensively.

The Lions’ defense has surrendered 400+ yards in their first two playoff contests, ceding huge games to Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield in the process. Brock Purdy and his cavalcade of pass-catchers are primed for huge days, and the total on this contest continues to rise. Ultimately, this is an elite bounceback spot for all of their offensive options.

📰 Kadarius Toney Ruled Out Again

Toney has yet to suit up during the postseason, and he’ll be inactive once again vs. the Ravens. That has yet to hurt the Chiefs, who have looked better than they have for most of the season on the offensive side of the ball. Rashee Rice has blossomed into a bonafide No. 1 receiver, while Travis Kelce looked resurgent last week with two touchdowns.

That said, those performances came against defenses that were extremely banged up. The Dolphins were without their top five sack-getters from the regular season, while the Bills were down multiple players in their back seven.

It’s going to be a much different story vs. the Ravens, who are coming off a dominant performance vs. the Texans last week. They were the No. 2 defense during the regular season in EPA/play, so it’s going to be the Chiefs’ toughest test by a mile.

They’re going to need someone besides Rice, Kelce, and Isiah Pacheco to make a big play if they’re going to hang with Baltimore. Can anyone step up to the plate? That remains to be seen, but Marques Valdez-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Mecole Hardman are the most likely candidates. All three have some viability as DFS punt plays.

📰 Mark Andrews Ready to Return

The Ravens didn’t need any help, but they’re getting some anyway. Andrews is set to return to the lineup for the first time since Week 11 after logging four straight full practices.

However, Andrews’ role vs. the Chiefs is still TBD. It’s rumored that he could be on a “pitch count” in his first game back, and Isaiah Likely has earned a larger role in the offense regardless.

That makes Andrews a risky fantasy option, particularly on a slate with Kelce, George Kittle, and Sam LaPorta. He still carries plenty of upside – especially at what should be low ownership – but he has plenty of bust potential as well.

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Check out who the Fantasy Life team likes in today's games below!

Welcome to Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.

The group chat three-way parlay record moved to 5-11 last week (+12.68 units overall since this started, assuming one unit bet per parlay) and to 33-14-1 on the individual props/bets. 

As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our group parlay below. Good luck!

🤝 Group Chat (Same Game) Parlay

Each of these legs can be found in the Same-Game Parlay tab of the Lions/Bucs game on BetMGM.

1️⃣ Ian likes: Justice Hill 15+ receiving yards

• Projection: 16.5
• Play to: 15+

Ian’s candle play, round 2! 

As Hartitz mentioned on the Betting Life prop pod this week, the Chiefs got burned by James Cook and Latavius Murray in the passing game in the Divisional Round. Hill is also a solid receiver out of the backfield, capable of imitating that success, and projects out with a solid edge to his over. 

2️⃣ Freedman likes: Chiefs at Ravens under 44.5

• Play to: 44.5

From Freedman himself:

“Since 2003, outdoor unders in the postseason are 101-77-5 (9.6% ROI).

And more importantly, we have two top-six defenses, a Chiefs offense that underwhelmed for the entirety of the season, and a Ravens offense that should be able to grind the clock down with its running attack.”

3️⃣ Geoff likes: Lamar Jackson under 69.5 rush yards

• Projection: 57.1
• Play to: 65.5

This one is all about fading the fomo. We have Jackson’s rushing line set in the high 50’s which means there is a pretty significant edge to the under, according to our projections. 

I also think it correlates well with an under on the game total and with the Hill receiving over. 

🤝 Putting it all together: +425, BetMGM

• Justice Hill 15+ receiving yards 
• Chiefs/Ravens under 44.5 
• Lamar Jackson under 69.5 rush yards

Ladder Play: David Montgomery rushing yards - Lions (BetMGM) 

• 50+ rush yards (+115)
• 50+ rush yards + TD (+325) 
• 75+ rush yards (+360)
• 100+ rush yards (+650) 

We saw what Aaron Jones did to this defense last week (18 carries, 108 yards). And while San Francisco has been solid at limiting yards against, in general, they also rank just 24th in rush EPA on the season. 

The former Bear is averaging 70.4 yards per game on the road this season and while he’s been held under 75 rush yards in five straight games, he’s also gone over 50 yards rushing in nine of his last 11 starts. 

Game flow could be a concern, but I expect the Lions to try and stick with the run as much as possible. For betting, the +115 odds at 50+ look like a great starting point just given our projections. Combing the 50+ yards with an anytime TD also gives us a great second ladder wrung to chase at +325. After that, you can sprinkle lightly on 75+ and 100+ yards coming to fruition.

💰 These players are primed to find paydirt on Sunday. So why not profit from it?

💸 Who is making this bet? No, seriously…who???

✍️ Our team is up over 50 units on the NFL and guess what? They’re all free.

🤝 2 other coaching moves finalized. A couple of 5-year contracts.

👀 It’s like your own personal betting assistant. We’ll find today’s best prop bet values for you.

😱 Jared Goff chants are breaking out across the country. It’s a movement.

🦅 The Eagles make a move at OC. That was quick.

🐻 Are the Bears committed to Justin Fields? The social media team is putting in work.

We are down to just 2-games, so instead of scrolling down for Hidden Gems, today Pete is going to dish out some Pick ‘Em picks on Underdog Fantasy…

One of the reasons I’ve come to love Pick‘Ems is because you can think of them like a DFS lineup. Instead of selecting individual picks in a vacuum, you can string together correlated picks that tell a story about a specific game flow or outcome. 

Here are 5-leg Pick’Em entries for the Niners/Lions game that leverage our tools and projections at Fantasy Life.

As a reminder, you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 on Underdog Fantasy when you sign up with promo code LIFE and start playing Pick’em today!

✍️ Lions @ 49ers Pick'Em

💥 The Niners Demolition Script

We are very bullish on Brandon Aiyuk this weekend (you can read Dwain’s thoughts on his matchup here). Underdog has him listed at 80.5 receiving yards and our projection is for 88.4 receiving yards, so that’s a logical place for us to start by taking the higher.

Now we start thinking about a game script where Aiyuk has 80+ receiving yards. What also happens in these scenarios?

If Aiyuk goes higher than 80.5, it’s also highly likely that Brock Purdy is having a good game as well. In his Favorites piece, Matthew Freedman outlined a simple case for Purdy having success in this spot.

He’s at home for the second week in a row. The 49ers have had just one road game since Christmas. Purdy has an extra day of rest. Williams is healthy. And Levi’s Stadium has a windless and sunny forecast that projects a Jan. 28th all-time record high of 70 degrees.

The last 5 QBs to face the Lions have all thrown for 345 or more yards. We are not going to get fancy. We’ll add Brock Purdy higher than 276.5 passing yards to the entry.

And if Purdy is slinging it around the yard all day, we know another 49er pass catcher is likely to be a beneficiary.

If Purdy is clearing his number, we’ll want to find another pass catcher to pair him with.

Enter George Kittle, who faces a Lions team that ranks 23rd against the TE position for fantasy points allowed.

Considering we have Kittle projected for 66.8 yards, it makes sense to take the higher on his 60.5 receiving yards number. 

We now have a Purdy “double stack” in our lineup with Kittle and Aiyuk where we are getting value on both the Kittle and Aiyuk numbers. 

Eventually, we’ll add a Lions piece to the entry–you can’t submit an entry without having players from at least two teams–but we are going to add one more Niners piece to this onslaught.