šÆ Picking Off Stale Lines
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, we preview Freedman's favorite Week 15 props, bets from the group chat, and a Sunday Night AFC showdown.
To beat a sportsbook, first you need to have ā and keep ā an accountā¦
In todayās Betting Life newsletter presented by LG Channels:
- Stale Lines: Not every +EV bet is +EV.
- Player Props! Kadarius? Really???
- A Group Chat Parlay: Say CHEESE!
- Comeback Player of the Year: The market MOVESā¦
- SNF: Bird vs. cat.
- Itās 12/17: Take it away, Matthew Freedmanā¦
Iām writing this on Saturday evening. As Iām typing this very sentence, an NFL game should be playing in the backgroundā¦ but instead Iām āwatchingā a Christmas movie with my wife as we both work on our computers.
Family,Ā am I right?
Also, donāt get me started on the movie. Itās one she chose. Itās not Die Hard.
Anyway, Iām tracking Lions-Broncos on my phone and looking at the various sportsbook apps, and it has caught my eye that some books leave up futures and awards markets during these island games.
And a couple of books even keep them up during NFL Sundays.
I have some thoughts on this.
š Stale Lines
Weāre at that point in the year where we get more standalone games ā and each game has heightened significance.
In these circumstances, itās not hard to scan the futures and awards markets during or shortly after games and find āstale linesā that no longer reflect current reality. Books lack the bandwidth to update all of these lines quickly.
And itās tempting to bet these lines and exploit the edge we have against slow-moving sportsbooks in this spot.
But it might be best not to.
šØ Donāt Draw Attention
Is it wrong ā is it against the rules ā to bet old lines? Maybe. Maybe not.
Either way, it doesnāt matter ā because books donāt like it, and they have the indiscriminate ability to limit or refuse action from anyone they want.
For instance, right now the Lions are ahead 14-0 in their primetime game. They have a good chance to secure their 10th win of the season and separate themselves from the rest of their division.
Letās say that near the end of the game you find an advantageous line on the Lions to win the NFC North. Itās not a line thatās clearly āwrong.ā Itās not as if someone just uploaded a bad line. But itās old and obviously needs to be updated.
And you bet it ā because the value is just too great to pass up.
If you do that, you risk attracting the unwanted scrutiny of the sportsbook traders, who might choose to limit your account ā and the book might find that your bet was made in violation of the rules and is thus void.
Itās not worth burning an account betting stale lines.
GET FREEDMANāS BEST BETS FOR WEEK 15!
For everything you need for Week 15 ā including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates ā you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for todayās slate below:
Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
ā¬ļøĀ Rachaad White Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 25.8
- Cutoff: 22.5
White has gone over this number in 10 of 13 games, and his prop total just three weeks ago was a season-high 29.5, so this is something of a buy-low spot.
White is the No. 3 RB in the league with his 419 receiving yards, and he trails only Christian McCaffrey (81%, 79%) with his 80% snap rate and 72% route rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
The Buccaneers are road underdogs of more than a field goal to the Packers, so they could have more of a pass-leaning game script, and White has notable per-game win/loss receiving splits.
- Seven Losses: 36.4 receiving yards | 4.4 receptions | 4.7 targets
- Six Wins: 27.3 receiving yards | 2.8 receptions | 3.3 targets
The Packers have allowed an average of 6.5 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 28.2 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs.
Given the matchup and Whiteās pass-catching role and talent (7.9 yards per target), 21.5 is just too low of a number.
ā¬ļøĀ Kadarius Toney Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- My Projection: 12.7
- Cutoff: 14.5 (-130)
Last week, the Chiefs gave Toney a season-high 44% snap rate and 17 routes. I probably donāt need to tell you what happened.
The Chiefs lost, in large part because of Toney ā and thatās the second time we can say that this year.
Toney has an average of 13.7 receiving yards per game and a median of 12.5 this year, so I naturally lean to the under anyway, but thereās also a chance that the Chiefs will dramatically curtail his usage moving forward, at least in the short term, to ensure that he doesnāt sabotage any more outcomes with his unique brand of carelessness.
SEE THE REST OF FREEDMANāS PROPS!
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- Justin Fields vs. the Browns
- Can you trust the Seahawks RBs??
- Outlook on Odell Beckham Jr.
Welcome to Week 15 of Bets from the Group Chat, where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit information from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets.
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our group parlay below (+15.52 units on the year). You can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay.Ā
If parlays arenāt your thing, we also have the weekly ladder target as well. Good luck!
šĀ Mark Drumheller and Matthew Freedman Like: Ravens -3 (-120, BetMGM)
- Play to: -3.0 (-125)Ā
Jacksonville has struggled of late defensively ā allowing 30+ points in back-to-back games ā and now faces Lamar Jackson, who posted 7.4 yards per attempt and three TDs against a Rams secondary that rates out better than the Jags.Ā
Baltimore has also been a solid road team, going 10-5 ATS on the road since the start of last year.Ā
š»Ā Matt LaMarca Likes: Bears +3 (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: +3.0 (-120)Ā
As LaMarca noted in our free bet tracker, the Bears have been better on offense since Justin Fields returned, ranking 13th in EPA/play on that side of the ball since Week 11.
The Browns also just put two important O-Linemen on IR, significantly weakening their pass protection. The Bears got us a cover last week and I think they likely do the job again.
šĀ Geoff Ulrich Likes: Tyler Allgeier Over 7.5 Carries (-138, BetMGM)Ā
- Projection: 9.5
- Play to: 7.5 (-150), 8.5 (-110)
The Falcons play the Panthers, who are objectively the worst rush defense in the league (32nd in EPA per rush and 32nd in success rate against the run).Ā
Teams playing the Panthers have averaged 29.2 rush attempts per game (fifth-most in the league), and Allgeier himself has taken eight or more carries in every game since Week 5.
š¤Ā Putting It All Together (+488, BetMGM)
- Ravens -3.0 (-120)
- Bears +3.0 (-115)
- Tyler Allgeier over 7.5 carries (-138)
š Week 15 Ladder Play
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.Ā
Hereās the Week 15 ladder target.
š§Ā WR Jayden Reed - Packers (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+230): Play to +220
- Over 74.5 rec yards + anytime TD (+400, SGP)
- 100+ rec yards (+550): Play to +500
The Buccaneers are a classic funnel to the pass defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. They are also likely to be without starting CB Carlton Davis (foot, doubtful).Ā
The dynamic Reed has gone for 80+ yards twice in seven games since Week 8 and caught a team-high eight passes last week against the Giants.Ā
We can play Reed through 75+ and 100+ yards, but if you want a third leg, creating a same-game parlay on BetMGM with over 74.5 yards and an anytime TD gives you solid +400 odds to chase and another way to capitalize on a big game from Reed.
More Bets? Of Course You NEED THEM!
š Iron sharpens iron.Ā Where sharps are betting for Week 15.
šĀ Resident analyst calls his shot on Justin Fields.Ā Bet accordingly.
š Projections vs prop lines.Ā No surprise ā weāre high on MVP Brock Purdy.
āļø The Comeback Player of the Year market has seen a seismic shift.Ā Is it actually going to happen?
š„Ā Betting on the end of a drought.Ā Touchdown bets for Week 15.
š° Room for one more bet?Ā That was rhetorical, we know you need more plays. And we have them.
šŖ The best Pickāem plays for Week 15.Ā Lamarvelousā¦
šØĀ Last-minute bets, anyone?Ā Join us for our Sunday betting conversation before lock.
Two division-leading AFC squads squaring off on Sunday Night Football? Yes, please! Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite bets for Ravens-Jaguars.
šĀ Best Bet: Ravens -3.5 (+100, DraftKings)
There are only two choices for betting the Ravens at the moment: -3.0 at approximately -120, or -3.5 at +100. Thereās merits for both sides. Three is the most important number in NFL betting, so paying 20 cents of juice to get from 3.5 to 3.0 is certainly worth considering.
However, in this exact scenario, Iām fine with getting the āworseā number at +100. I have the Ravens favored by closer to five points in my power ratings, so Iām showing plenty of value with both numbers.
Not only are the Ravens the better team ā potentially by a wide margin ā but this is a spot where Lamar Jackson has historically thrived. Jackson is 23-13 ATS on the road during the regular season, including 7-3 as a road favorite of 3.5 points or fewer.
The Ravens were one of the first bets I locked into the NFL Bet Tracker this week, and I wrote about them in my Early Lines article. The line hasnāt moved as much as I anticipated, but the sharps have shown a clear lean towards Baltimore. Ultimately, it doesnāt matter if this number is -3.0 or -3.5; the Ravens are the correct side.
šĀ Top Prop: Travis Etienne Under 3.5 receptions (-120; BetMGM)
Etienne has had lots of success as a receiver, racking up four catches in three straight games. That said, Lawrence has thrown the ball A LOT of late. He had a season-high 50 pass attempts in his last game, so the fact that Etienne only saw four targets is actually a bad thing. His 9% target share in that contest was his second-lowest mark of the year, while his 14% TPRR was his fifth-lowest.
As long as Lawrence doesnāt have to throw the ball 50 times this week ā we have him projected for a modest 33 attempts ā Etienne is due for some regression. We currently have him projected for just 2.5 receptions, so the under on 3.5 is a nice value at -120.
šĀ Climb the Ladder: Odell Beckham Jr. (FanDuel)
- 50+ receiving yards: +142
- 70+ receiving yards: +310
- 100+ receiving yards: +800
This week, Iām taking a look at Odell Beckham Jr. in the alternate market. OBJ is still not an every-snap player, but when heās on the field, thereās a good chance the ball is coming his way. Heās been targeted on at least 30% of his routes run in three straight games, and heās been above 40% in two of them.
Beckham had a season-high 10 targets last week, which he turned into 97 yards and a touchdown. He had 116 yards two weeks prior, so heās displayed the ability to put together big finishes.
