Is The TD Market Overreacting To Sam Darnold?
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+, we examine the Sam Darnold's TD mark, a rookie debuts, and much more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+
Disconnect: Not to betray my beloved spreadsheets for too much vibe-based content, but when deciding what to share every day it dominates the fore. I spent so many years earning a reputation as the hardest-working person in the space (and there’s nothing wrong with that)—it’s actually the time away that’s really sharpened the sword.
Now I happen to be a Disney dad and a total sucker for the fam, but I used to be a total loner who understands fully how annoying that once sounded. So paint, hunt, exercise, juggle, or fish—the point is, find something, anything to do (at least) one day a week that isn’t gambling related.
Trust me, I tried to go from trading the weekdays to betting on weekends and eventually burned out—muscles grow between sets.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Building Blocks
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- The New York Prop Exchange
Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Play It Again, Sam
Frankly, I’m surprised this line is still so low considering the correlated news happened weeks ago. Having traded markets for so long, aside from being wildly unpredictable, I can tell you they generally do not correct—they overcorrect.
That’s exactly what I think is going on up north in Minnesota, where I’m willing to bet on the system plus playcalling to get us to the window. Showing a lack of confidence in the Vikings’ QB situation only made sense a month ago. However, once J.J. McCarthy unfortunately went down for the season, the runway couldn’t be clearer for Sam Darnold’s takeoff. What does a former third-overall pick have to do to get some respect?
Are we that low as a society on Sam Darnold that we think he’s worse than last year’s amalgamation of Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall, and Nick Mullens after Kirk Cousins went down for the season in Week 8? I don’t know people, but I see a Minnesota offense that ranked top 5 in:
Pass Rate: 67.0%
Dropbacks Per Game: 41.6
Completions Per Game: 24.9
Passing TDs: 30
Everyone keeps telling me there’s no way Kevin O’Connell stays as aggressive with Darnold under center and my counter is simple — you sure about that? (below)
So why is Sam Darnold’s TD line set at 19.5, just one higher than Gardner Minshew, who more likely than not will be battling for snaps all season? I’m not sure, but I’ve got a half-unit to find out if I’m crazy or not.
The Vikings will throw a ton this year, on a fast track, likely playing from behind. Last point for reference—the 12 passing TDs in 10 games (1.2 TD/game) from Dobbs/Mullens is exactly what we need for Darnold to clear 20 if he plays all season.
THE BET: Sam Darnold Over 19.5 Passing TD (-110) - 0.5 units
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The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Fuhgeddaboudit
Let’s make this one quick as a bunny. Samuel Aldegheri makes his MLB debut tonight for the Los Angeles Angels against the Seattle Mariners, who if you haven’t watched MLB this season strike out at historic rates (below).
Books are unsure what to do with my paesan Aldegheri, a strikeout machine, who posted a 31% K rate across his 212 innings in his minor-league career. So why is his line at O4.5 for plus money? I don’t know—he went over in 16 of his last 18 starts (below) and I got a half unit that says we tack on one more.
THE BET: Samuel Aldegheri O4.5 Strikeouts (+110) DK, Half Unit
Track all of my daily MLB picks in our Free MLB Bet Tracker!
Building Blocks 🧠🧮—When 4+4 = 9
We’ve covered reading the tape to properly time bets and, of course, the criticality in price shopping. Today’s building block is a little from column A and a little from Column B when it comes to betting MLB totals. It’s one of those “it’s so obvious it’s silly to repeat,” yet always manages to raise at least one set of eyebrows.
Since I model all 2,430 regular-season MLB games every year, you can only imagine I’ve seen every possible permutation of results. That said, betting on game totals remains one of the great unsolved equations in the industry (it’s why they list at -110).
In baseball, for example, you can load the bases every inning and still get shut out. So something I’ve noticed that helps add a few points of edge in this difficult market is to fight intuition—rather than simply target the highest overall projected score, look for contributions from both sides. While sometimes these two things do align, it’s less than you might assume.
For example, a great team with an ace on the mound may project 6.75 runs against a bottom-dwelling farce of an organization (let’s call them the White Sox) that projects a measly 3.25. While that equals a total of 10 and should get you clear of an O/u 9, it can be misleading. Good models won’t spit out zeros, so a 3.0 implies the best chance of a shutout. Therefore, you’re relying on one true source for offense. In this case, betting 8.5 compared to 9 makes all the difference (I wouldn't bet O9 even with the assumed full run cushion)
On the other hand, two teams in the same game modeled for 4.5 runs each implies a full run lower than the game above, yet I’m more likely to bet the over here.
Why?
For starters these games have a much better chance of getting posted at O/U 8. But the real reason is that two teams with a median outcome of 4.5 present a better chance of contributions from both sides, and therein lies the rub. IF they do both reach four runs, you can turn off the TV a winner: 4 + 4 = 9.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
Matthew Berry’s 10 Lists of 10 has plenty angles on how to attack the upcoming NFL season.
Matt LaMarca breaks down the NFC West in this great Betting Preview.
Are you ready to play weekly NFL Survivor? John Laghezza presents 3 important steps.
Who’s winning the Heisman Trophy? Some great contenders.
What does Coach Prime do for an encore? Here’s a Colorado football season preview.
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