Good teams win, great teams cover, and bad teams sometimes win outright as underdogs…

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• ATS Losers: Well, they won as underdogs in Week 7!
• Adjusted Scores: Bills “beat” Patriots… sort of…
• Early Lines: A battle of birds!
• The Public: Pain.
• MNF: What to make of the injured 49ers?
• It’s 10/23: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…

The Bears. Falcons. Giants. And Patriots. What do they all have in common?

They all entered Week 7 with no more than one win against the spread (ATS). They all entered Week 7 as underdogs. And they all covered.

In fact, they didn’t just cover. They all won outright.

• Bears +2.5: Beat Raiders 30-12
• Falcons +3: Beat Buccaneers 16-13
• Giants +3: Beat Commanders 14-7
• Patriots +7.5: Beat Bills 29-25

What should we make of these four teams going forward?

That’s hard to know, but here are some thoughts.

🧸 Bears: 2-4 ATS

QB Justin Fields (thumb) is out with an injury that could keep him sidelined for at least another week — maybe longer? — but rookie backup Tyson Bagent looked competent in his first NFL start (21-of-29 passing, 70 QBR, just one sack, no turnovers).

On the one hand, Bagent was the Division II 2021 MVP as the Harlon Hill Trophy winner, and he was good enough in training camp to beat out veterans P.J. Walker and Nathan Peterman for the No. 2 job.

On the other hand, he’s a small-school first-year player with one NFL start, and even though his NFL debut was promising he still passed for just 162 yards in an imminently soft matchup against the Raiders.

I think we shouldn’t read much into what we saw in Week 7. In yesterday’s Betting Life Newsletter, I noted that I have Bagent as -3.8 ATS vs. Fields, and I still think that’s a fair estimation.

With Bears HC Matt Eberflus, the longer-term dynamics still seem relevant. Since becoming coach last year, Eberflus is 7-16-1 ATS (-40.3% ROI, per Action Network).

And ever since Eberflus (a defensive HC) initiated the “rebuild” of his side of the ball last year with the trade of EDGE Robert Quinn (10/26) — followed quickly by the trade of LB Roquan Smith (10/31) — the over is 13-4 (46.5% ROI).

Under Eberflus, the Bears have struggled to cover — both in the betting market and on the football field.

👎 Falcons: 2-5 ATS

QB Desmond Ridder was somewhat acceptable in Week 7 with 250 yards, no TDs, and no INTs on 19-of-25 passing, to which he added 6-38-1 rushing, but…

• He lost three fumbles.
• The defense allowed only 13 points.
• The Falcons won on a 42-yard field goal as time expired.

Let’s not act as if the Falcons have solved their problems.

Under HC Arthur Smith, they have underwhelmed in multiple ways: He’s 17-23-1 ATS (-18.7% ROI), and the under is 26-15 (21.6% ROI), an embarrassing fact for an offensive HC.

And then there’s this: With Ridder, the Falcons in the first half — when they should theoretically benefit from their scripted plays — are 1-10 ATS (-86.2% ROI).

With Ridder and Smith, the Falcons still look like a team troubled.

What about the Giants and Patriots?

Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points (a sports analytics newsletter), and each week he reviews every game and provides his “adjusted scores” based on the underlying production data. Here are two excerpts from his advanced game reviews for Week 7.

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).

📊 Adjusted Scores Table

• “Pass”: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)
• “Success”: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score
• “H & A”: Home or away team

🔀 Patriots vs. Bills

• Final Score: 29-25
• Adjusted Score: 24-27

Although it’s little consolation to the Bills, they were the better team by the adjusted scores. They had a higher success rate and essentially the same offensive efficiency, but they had a few big plays go against them, including a missed field goal and a failed 4th & 2 conversion.

The Patriots also benefited from having nine real possessions to the Bills’ eight, as the Bills were stuck with the ball at the end of both halves with 20 or fewer seconds remaining.

The Patriots didn’t have a ton of big plays by expected points added, but they were much more consistently successful in the ground game, and Mac Jones finally held down negatives. Jones didn’t turn the ball over and only took one sack.

Josh Allen had solid numbers, but they won’t be looked upon favorably in a loss with a big turnover.

👍 Chiefs vs. Chargers

• Final Score: 31-17
• Adjusted Score: 29-18

This was the “for the love of God, please stop running the ball” bowl. The success rate and differential between passing and rushing wasn’t that different for the Chargers, and they did rely on the run for their biggest play of the game (49-yard Josh Kelley TD). But Austin Ekeler had only 45 yards on 14 carries (-2.4 EPA, 21% success rate), and Kelley’s non-touchdown run value was negative (-0.7 EPA).

The Chiefs running the ball, even as infrequently as they did (17 times, or 17.3% of the time), felt like a gut punch every time.

The Chiefs didn’t gain more than seven yards on any designed run, gaining three or fewer yards 70% of the time. I know, theoretically, quarterbacks and receivers need breaks in the action, and you have to “keep the defense honest.” But how could the Chiefs not have been more efficient this week if they simply let Patrick Mahomes drop back and pass in all non-clock-killing situations?

When the chips were down, the Chiefs dropped back to pass in order to convert every third down, successful 55% of the time, adding 5.6 EPA.

The combination of a Josh Allen loss (although he played okay) and this outstanding performance in a win should move Patrick Mahomes way out in front of the MVP race. The gap between Mahomes and the rest of the NFL just keeps getting bigger, as he displays the ability to win in every way (+5.3 scrambling EPA) and in every situation.

I have to make special mention of how far Brandon Staley has fallen with his 4th-down decisions. He passed up all four chances the Chargers had to gain 1% win probability or more by going for it.

More from Unexpected Points

⛓️ Kirk-O Chainz in Primetime!!

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PLACE YOUR BET!

Finding early betting value — and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible — is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor.

Matt LaMarca dives into a few bets to consider attacking early in the week.

🤠 Houston Texans (-3.0) at Carolina Panthers (-110, DraftKings)

• Opening Line: Texans +3
• Current Line: Texans -3
• Target Range: Texans -3

Both of these squads entered the year with rookie quarterbacks, but they’ve gone in entirely different directions. The Texans haven’t just competed; they’re well in the thick of the playoff race at 3-3. Meanwhile, the Panthers have yet to get in the win column, and they’re a paltry 0-5-1 against the spread. No team has cost bettors more money than the Panthers, even though they’ve played one fewer game than a lot of squads.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that this line has completely flipped.

The Panthers were listed as three-point home favorites when this number first came out, but the Texans are now three-point favorites on the road. The Texans have also received an overwhelming amount of the early money, racking up 89% of the tickets and 98% of the dollars (per the Action Network).

You could try to make the case that the Panthers are being undervalued. After all, this line has moved against them by six full points. Teams with zero covers over their six most recent games have also gone 74-61-3 ATS since 2005.

However, do you really want to bet on the Panthers? I know I don’t.

The Texans have an edge in virtually every area:

• Quarterback? Check.
• Coaching? Check.
• Defense? Check.

Both teams are also coming off the bye, so they’ll be on equal footing from a rest perspective as well.

With home-field growing less important by the year, I think this number only has one direction to go: up. With the money pouring in on the Texans, there’s a far greater chance this gets to 3.5 and beyond than drops below 3.0.

I’m locking the Texans now to avoid missing out on the most important key number in football.

📈 Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals (-110, BetMGM)

• Opening Line: Ravens -6.0
• Current Line: Ravens -8.5
• Target Range: Ravens -9.5 or better

The Cardinals started the year with two close losses and a win, and it seemed like sports bettors everywhere were ready to throw them a parade. All offseason, all we heard about the Cardinals was that they were going to be really, really bad. Instead, they might be competitive. Frisky even!

However, those performances look a lot less impressive in retrospect. The Commanders and Giants are two of the worst teams in football, so the fact that the Cardinals lost close games to them isn’t all that impressive. The win over the Cowboys is still nice, but the Cowboys were down three starters on their offensive line and have been humbled after a dominant start to the year.

In short – the Cardinals might be just as bad as we all initially thought.

They’ve now failed to cover in four straight games, losing by a combined 70 points. They’ve lost all four games by double figures.

Now, they have to take on a Ravens team that is absolutely surging. They just put together one of the most impressive showings of the year vs. the Lions, embarrassing them 38-6 in Baltimore. They racked up more than 500 yards of offense against a solid Lions’ D, and now that they’re nearing full strength on offense — this team looks like a beast.

It’s hard for me to envision the Cardinals keeping this one close. I’m happy to play Baltimore at anything better than -10.

More Early Lines to Target

🤷‍♂️ I guess that Lamar Jackson is pretty good: Your team could’ve had him, but your GM knows better.

🛄 This guy is setting the wrong kind of record. Whatever the team sack total is, just bet the over.

❌ The public finally got its sports betting comeuppance. All I see is RED.

📞 “Hello, yes, 911… I’d like to report a violent crime.” But the man ain’t wrong.

🤔 “Triple G” just calling it as he sees it. In what universe does it ever make sense to start Brian Hoyer?

🧠 As someone who bet on the Steelers, I don’t see a problem with this: Maybe — and I’m just brainstorming — Sean McVay shouldn’t waste timeouts?

📝 We are living through a cultural moment. There’s zero chance the NFL won’t script the Chiefs into the Super Bowl.

👍 You know who’s pretty good? That Patrick Mahomes fella.

💩 The Browns pulled off an awesome comeback on Sunday. Now they just need their $230M QB to start pulling his weight.

💰 Looking for more Monday Night Football bets? We’ve got you covered.

The Monday Nighter for Week 7 brings us an intriguing showdown to finish the week, and Geoff Ulrich is here to guide you through your bet slip for the game…

⛏️ San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings

As of now, we know Deebo Samuel (shoulder, out) and likely T Trent Williams (ankle, doubtful) will miss this game. Williams is a tough loss, especially with Danielle Hunter (eight sacks) on the other side. RB Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and LB Dre Greenlaw (hamstring) are also questionable, but it is looking like McCaffrey is leaning toward playing.

It’s easy to overthink spots like this with the 49ers coming off a loss and not at 100%, but even if San Francisco’s offensive efficiency dips a little, the Vikings are going to have a tough time moving the ball themselves. 

Kirk Cousins only managed 181 yards last week on 31 attempts (5.83 yards per attempt) in his first game without Justin Jefferson, and TE TJ Hockenson (6-50) accounted for nearly a third of those yards.

The 49ers are tough against TEs (third fewest yards allowed to the position), so if Minnesota wants to score, they will likely need either a career game from Alexander Mattison or Cousins to suddenly get in sync with his rookie WR, Jordan Addison.

✅ Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (-115, FanDuel)

• Bet to: 49ers -7.0 (-105)

Ultimately, the 49ers are an all-star squad who have proven they can handle being down a couple of players and still grab a dominant win. They hammered the Giants without Brandon Aiyuk and breezed over the Cardinals with Samuel less than 100%. I’ve yet to even mention George Kittle, who always tends to come up big for the 49ers in these spots (when a WR is injured).

Trend-wise, we also have to consider the vast difference between these two QBs. Since coming into the league, Brock Purdy is 10-4 ATS for his career and 4-0 ATS in primetime games.

On the other side, we have Kirk Cousins. Minnesota is 10-19 ATS at home since the start of 2020, and Cousins, for his career, is 21-35 ATS in games that start at 4 p.m. ET or later (per The Action Network).

If you don’t want to take the -6.5, you can also think about using the 49ers as a teaser leg (-7.0 to -1.0) and taking them with a team like the Steelers (+1.5 to +7.5 vs. Jaguars) next Sunday.

⬆️ Best Player Prop: Jordan Addison over 49.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Bet To: 51.5 (-115)
• Fantasy Life Projection: 59.4 yards

Addison’s number has moved up a little bit since props dropped on Friday, but it’s still in a solid range to take the over. The rookie has moved into a near-every-down role for the Vikings since Jefferson went down, posting a 100% route rate in Week 6 with a 17% target share. While his efficiency against the Bears (3-28-1, 5 targets) wasn’t spectacular, you also had less aggressive playcalling by Kevin O’Connell in the second half and poor weather to deal with.

The 49ers tend to push more passing toward the edges of the field, which should help Addison in this matchup. San Francisco has allowed the fourth-most receptions to WRs, and we have a great shot at a positive game script with the Vikings as underdogs of nearly a touchdown.

More 49ers-Vikings Best Bets