🚀 NFL Bounce Back Candidates
Can last year's losers become winners?
If Darren Waller can make a music video, Aaron Rodgers and Anthony Richardson can start 10+ games this year.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog:
NFL Bounce Back Teams: Respect the Horseshoe.
Watercooler: Best Bets for the NHL and UFC 302.
MLB Friday: Astros to the moon.
It’s 5/31. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich
One of the things that makes the NFL great is the parity that exists throughout the league. Teams in the NFL tend to bounce back with an alarming amount of regularity thanks to a variety of factors, none of which is greater than the variance of a short 17-game season and the fact football is a violent game where injuries play a key role.
Here are some stats that best exemplify this point:
In 19 of the past 21 seasons, at least one team that finished in last place the year prior managed to win its division.
In 2023-24, six teams made the playoffs after missing the postseason the year prior.
In 2021-22 and 2022-23, seven teams made the playoffs after missing the postseason the year prior.
In 2023-24, five new teams made the divisional round (final eight) compared to 2022-23.
With the preseason getting closer, now’s the time to think about who the next batch of bounce-back candidates will be. For this article, I’ve broken down my favorite (and least favorite) non-playoff teams into one of three different categories for next season: Real Upside, Potential to Outperform, and More Trouble Ahead. I’ve also listed off the bets that have the most interest to me for each squad.
It’s early, so investing in futures may not be something you're ready to do quite yet, but for now, I want to set a good base for how I view these teams going into training camp and preseason.
With that in mind, let’s dive in and see which non-playoff teams from last season stand out as we hit the beginning of the summer.
🐎 Real Upside: Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach Shane Steichen impressed on many fronts last year, but his early season ability to shape the offense around Anthony Richardson’s unique skillset stands out as one of the main reasons to be bullish on the Colts for 2023-24.
The Colts called 15 designed runs for Richardson over his four starts in his rookie year, and his 22% explosive rush rate would have been first among all QBs.
Further, while Richardson’s decision-making and injuries are often hot-button topics, people seem to overlook the upside he brings as a passer. It’s a small sample, but his 10.7% explosive pass rate would have ranked him third among all quarterbacks last season and would have been a huge improvement on the Colts' overall performance in that area (8%; 20th).
Indianapolis also had a very strong draft by most accounts. DE Laiatu Latu was considered to be the best pure pass rusher and most talented defensive player available, and they seemingly got great value in Round 2 when WR Adonai Mitchell fell to them; many projected him to be a first-round pick.
The Colts also have the benefit of having the seventh easiest schedule in the league (based on Vegas Win Totals). They do open with two tough games (Houston at home and Green Bay on the road), but the schedule loosens up after that. Overall, they have six games against teams who currently have win/loss totals of 6.5 or lower.
Potential Bets: Indianapolis Over 8.5 wins (+110; bet365); AFC South Division Winner (+330; FanDuel)
I think the Colts have plenty of upside this season. The over on 8.5 wins remains my favorite play as long as it stays on the right side of +100, but I'm not against playing Indianapolis for more upside in the division-winner market. They stand out as decent value there and still have longer odds than the Jaguars, who had a less impressive offseason — and won’t be getting back a franchise-altering player like Richardson from injury.
More NFL Bounceback Discussion
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🏒 The Oilers and Stars face off in a pivotal Game 5. Target this +175 Anytime Goal prop tonight.
💥 UFC 302 features two huge co-main events. How to bet Islam Makhachev vs Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier and more.
🫡 It’s Happening! Kyrie. Celtics. NBA Finals. By the way, the Mavericks guard has some huge Finals MVP odds.
🤔 The Mavericks have been cash cows for bettors. But will they keep paying off as underdogs against Boston?
🌴 The Panthers are one win away from back-to-back finals. They lead the league in playoff wins since trading for Matthew Tkachuk.
💰 Jaylen Waddle signed an $84M extension with Miami. Will this start a domino of new deals for the league’s elite WRs?
🐻 It’s official: the Bears will be on Hard Knocks this season. This trend says it may not be a good thing.
🐤 Well, it finally happened. Isi Gabsa made an actual birdie in Round 1 of the Women’s US Open. RIP Tweety Bird.
❤️🩹 ICYMI. Darren Waller made a music video. Be sure to check the fine print in your fantasy football leagues this fall.
With the NBA officially on hiatus for the next six days, some of the other sports are going to have to step up and fill the void. Fortunately, baseball is always there for us when we need it. Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite plays for Friday’s 15-game slate.
🚀 Astros ML vs. Twins (-112; FanDuel)
Friday’s matchup between the Astros and Twins features one of the more intriguing pitching matchups on the slate. Ronel Blanco will get the ball for the Astros, and he’s been the biggest surprise in baseball this season. He started the year with a no-hitter, and he’s built off his success since then, racking up a 1.99 ERA through his first nine outings. Nothing in his profile says he should be capable of these kinds of results… yet he keeps delivering the goods anyway. He’s yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start, and he’s allowed more than two earned runs only once.
The Twins don’t seem like the team to end Blanco’s streak of dominance. They’re merely 17th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and they have the 12th-highest strikeout rate in that split. Overall, they grade out as slightly below average.
On the other side, Pablo Lopez has been established as one of baseball’s most underappreciated starters. However, he’s taken a major step backward in 2024. His ERA currently sits at 5.25, and while his xERA is significantly better (3.26), there are still some red flags. His 39.3% hard-hit rate is easily the worst mark of his career – well above his 34.7% career average – while his 40.1% groundball rate is his lowest mark at the MLB level.
The Astros’ offense is also starting to heat up: they’re fifth in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 14 days. Ultimately, this price tag is based more on Lopez’s reputation than production. I’m happy to roll with the Astros at anything better than -125.
