Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

Year 1 of the Shane Steichen tenure in Indianapolis went rather fantastic. Sure, the Colts' third-place AFC South finish and 9-8 record didn't exactly send a shockwave throughout the rest of the NFL, but the performance was pretty damn impressive when considering No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson was lost for the season by Week 5.

Fast forward to the present day, and suddenly expectations are quite high for a team that will have the same Week 1 starting QB in consecutive years for the first time since the 2015-2016 seasons. A quick overview of all the Colts' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Head coach: Shane Steichen (9-8 in 1 season as Colts HC)
Offensive coordinator: Jim Bob Cooter (58.8% pass-play rate as Colts OC in 2023, 20th)
Offseason arrivals: QB Joe Flacco (1-year, $4.5 million)
Offseason departures: QB Gardner Minshew (Raiders), RB Zack Moss (Bengals), WR Isaiah McKenzie (Giants)
Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Texas WR Adonai Mitchell (2.52), Oregon State WR Anthony Gould (5.142)
Reigning PFF o-line rank and returning starters: No. 3, 5 of 5

The Colts even managed to further solidify their already awesome front by adding Pittsburgh OL Matt Goncalves (3.79) and Wisconsin OL Tanor Bortolini (4.117) inside the draft's top-120 picks. That's pretty great news for the team's 22-year-old prodigal son under center.

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

QB1: Anthony Richardson (Fantasy Life consensus rank: QB5)
QB2: Joe Flacco

The Colts’ rising second-year QB started just two full games in 2023 … and he ripped off 20.9 and 29.6 fantasy points. Hell, he got to 17.7 in Week 2 vs. the Texans when he had two rushing TDs in just 18 snaps!

Overall, Richardson averaged a robust 0.73 fantasy points per dropback last season — the highest mark among all QBs with at least 75 dropbacks. Not bad for a guy who only started (checks notes) 13 total games during his collegiate career at Florida.

That said: The passing performance wasn’t pretty. Richardson ranked 45th in CPOE (-7.7%) among 49 qualified QBs. While his sub-60% completion rate isn’t a death blow considering guys like Jared Goff (54.6%), Andrew Luck (54.1%), Josh Allen (52.8%) and Jalen Hurts (52%) were all worse as rookies, it’s also not exactly ideal. The man certainly flashed the ability to make some fun tight-window throws (especially in the Rams game); just realize the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 4 overall pick still has a LOT to prove as a passer.

Oct 1, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) passes during the first half of the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, it's the rushing upside at hand that makes Richardson one of fantasy football's most intriguing options at the position. Just six QBs had at least 30% of their fantasy production come on the ground last season:

Richardson (52% passing, 48% rushing)
Jalen Hurts (62%, 38%)
Justin Fields (64%, 36%)
Joshua Dobbs (65%, 35%)
Josh Allen (66%, 34%)
Lamar Jackson (69%, 31%)

QBs who push for 100-plus carries in a season simply don't bust in fantasy land. One of just five signal-callers who Fantasy Life projects to rack up triple-digit rush attempts this season, it's quite difficult to be overly bearish on Richardson's 2024 outlook … if he can stay healthy.

Good news: Both Dr. Jesse Morse and Dr. Deepak Chona believe Richardson will be 100% with no concerns for Week 1. Shoulder surgery is never ideal, but the most likely scenario is that everything works out. While many panicked when Steichen said Richardson was dealing with some soreness in his shoulder in June, the head coach insisted the QB was "fine" and said, “rest assured, he'd be playing Sunday if we had a game.”

Ultimately, Steichen looks a lot like one of the NFL’s best play-callers, and he’s been at the forefront of featuring his athletic QBs in the run game over the years. It’s awfully difficult to get Richardson out of the position’s top six options without simply assuming he’ll get injured or have his rushing usage drastically reduced.

Bottom line: Guys like Kyler Murray (QB7, pick 80.6 ADP) and Jayden Daniels (QB11, 102.3) certainly profile as cheaper versions of Richardson (QB5, 56.7), but that doesn't inherently mean the rising second-year talent is mispriced as a top-five option at the position. Ultimately, Richardson is one of fantasy's players who are terrifying to fade because their best-case outcome involves scoring more points than anyone else in the league. Not a bad upside scenario to sign up for in Round 5.

Running Back

RB1: Jonathan Taylor (RB4)
RB2: Trey Sermon (RB75)
RB3: Evan Hull

A "back" injury kept Taylor sidelined for the first month of 2023, but he was ready to go once it "healed" at almost the exact same time that the Colts gave their featured RB a three-year, $42 million contract extension.

Unfortunately, Taylor didn't exactly hit the ground running upon returning to the lineup. In fact, he set career-low marks in yards (4.4) and missed tackles forced (0.17) per carry. Things were still relatively fine in terms of his yards after contact (3.1) and explosive run (13.6%) rates; just realize it was at least a little bit alarming to see journeyman Zack Moss average more yards over expected per carry (+0.71) than Taylor (+0.32) on the season — even if Moss certainly did benefit from Richardon's early-season gravity in the run game.

That said: Even relatively middling efficiency and the presence of a "Robin" in the backfield didn't prevent Taylor from returning some high-end fantasy numbers. The Colts got back to featuring the former second-round pick as their clear-cut lead back in Week 7, and Taylor accordingly ripped off half-PPR RB7, RB21, RB10, RB14, RB6, RB23, RB12 and RB2 finishes during his final eight games of the season.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) rushes for a touchdown Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, during a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Some of the highs from a usage perspective were HIGH during this stretch. A legit every-down role emerged with season-high snap rates of 74%, 77% and 88% — this was the league's sixth-most-willing offense to leave a single RB on the field for at least 80% of the offense's snaps last season.

Fantasy Life Projections have Taylor racking up an NFL-high 262 carries next season. However, his ability to finish closer to the overall RB1 than the RB12 comes down to how many fantasy-friendly goal-line carries and targets he's afforded in an offense commanded by a true high-volume dual-threat signal-caller.

Among 55 QBs who registered at least 80 rush attempts (5 per game in a 16-game season) since 2010…

15 of their RBs turned in top-12 finishes in PPR points per game (27%)
28 of their RBs racked up top-24 numbers (51%)
The average RB finish: RB22
The median RB finish: RB24

It's at least somewhat concerning that Richardson (3) had as many carries inside the five-yard line as all Colts RBs combined (3) during his brief time under center last season. The team's RB target share also went from 16.1% with Gardner Minshew under center to 13.9% with Richardson.

Nobody is debating Taylor's standing as one of the league's best pure rushers, but the likelihood that Richardson: 1.) Heavily factors into the rushing equation near the goal line, and 2.) Scrambles more often than he checks down, makes the rising fifth-year RB a premium-priced early-down grinder similar to Saquon Barkley.

Bottom line: I haven't made a habit of taking Taylor in the early parts of Round 2 ahead of the top-12 WRs he's priced around. The prospect of 300-plus touches makes it tough to be overly down on Taylor, but is his innate talent alone enough to warrant a 30-plus pick ADP difference over guys like Isiah Pacheco, Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon, who could see similar volume in probably better overall offenses? I don't believe it is, but the Colts deciding to lessen Richardon's goal-line workload could make this a moot concern in a hurry. Meanwhile, Trey Sermon is technically the next man up should Taylor miss time, although more of a committee approach would be expected, and it's far from a given that Indy wouldn't dip their toes into the free agency waters — the former third-round pick isn't anything more than a last-round dart for the time being.

Wide Receiver

WR1: Michael Pittman (WR22)
WR2: Josh Downs (WR58)
WR3: AD Mitchell (WR64)
WR4: Alec Pierce
WR5: Ashton Dulin
WR6: Anthony Gould

Colts WRs posted the following target shares with Richardson vs. Minshew under center last season:

Pittman: 24% Richardson, 29.8% Minshew
Downs: 17.7% Richardson, 17.8% Minshew
Pierce: 7.6% Richardson, 12.5% Minshew

Now, this is admittedly a small sample, although Pittman's half-PPR WR7, WR46, WR95 and WR37 finishes in Richardson's four starts weren't great. Kudos to the rising fifth-year talent on averaging a stellar 2.04 yards per route run — tied for 22nd with D.K. Metcalf last season — and the Colts certainly wouldn't have given Pittman his three-year, $70 million extension if they didn't view him as a legit No. 1 WR.

And then there's Downs, who is essentially the one undersized person on this entire Colts offense. The shifty slot merchant sadly lagged behind Pierce (95% vs. 72%) in overall route rate last season, inexplicably posting 52% and 62% marks during the team's final two games of the season. This isn't ideal, although the Colts' quick pace did help them run the fourth-most total plays in 11 personnel last season anyway.

Finally, Mitchell should break into starting three WR sets sooner rather than later considering, you know, Pierce has been one of the league's least efficient receivers by most advanced metrics since entering the league in 2022. Now, Mitchell's collegiate production profile isn’t incredible, but the highlights sure are. The freak athlete (fifth-best RAS score out of 3,188 WRs from 1987 to 2024) flashed tantalizing ability as both a downfield maestro and as a red-zone maverick was asked to run big boy NFL-caliber routes as a true X receiver at Texas, and his ability to respond with ELITE success rates on digs and outs against man coverage in particular are good signs about his ability to be more than just a one-trick pony field-stretching talent at the next level.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) works to push Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) out of bounds Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, during a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

The largest concern for all parties involved is the potential for this offense to embrace the run far more with Richardson as a full-time QB in 2024. Indy's pass-game projections aren't exactly ideal:

Total pass attempts: 532 (26th)
Passing yards: 3,746 (24th)
Passing TDs: 21.9 (24th)

This probably doesn't profile as the sort of offense to produce high-end complementary options in the passing game. It's also fair to wonder if the troubling history of rookie QBs enabling high-end fantasy WRs should also apply to Richardson. The No. 1 fantasy WR in PPR points per game has posted the following production from 41 offenses that have started a rookie QB for at least 10 games in a season since 2010:

5/41 finished in the top-12 (12%)
13/41 finished in the top-24 (32%)
Average finish: WR33
Median finish: WR35
High: WR7
Low: WR67

Bottom line: Pittman finished as the WR14 in PPR points per game (that he finished) in 2023, but drafting him that high would be a tough ask considering the potential for this passing game to decline a bit in overall volume and potentially efficiency, but you don't have to! The WR24 in current Underdog ADP, Pittman is one of fantasy's cheaper WRs with realistic potential to surpass 150 targets this season. I'm less inclined to expect weekly excellence from the offense's complementary options, although both Mitchell (WR57, pick 116.2 ADP) and Downs (WR62, 130.5) are pretty easy to stack with Richardson in best ball land — I certainly like their upside scenarios more than similarly priced veterans like Mike Williams and Gabe Davis.

Tight End

TE1: Jelani Woods (TE29)
TE2: Kylen Granson
TE3: Mo Alie-Cox

The largest difference in target shares with Richardson vs. Minshew under center came down to TE usage. Overall, Colts TEs earned a whopping 31.6% of Richardson's target share compared to just 19% of Minshew's pass-game opportunities.

The problem with translating this potential spike in targets into fantasy upside is the reality that the Colts have been very content to rotate multiple players at the position over the years. Granson (50 targets) led the way last season, but guys like Will Mallory (26), Mo Alie-Cox (22) and AnDrew Ogletree (21) saw enough complementary involvement to render everyone involved as non-viable fantasy options more weeks than not.

This begs the question: Can rising third-year TE Jelani Woods take over this situation and post something close to a full-time 70%-plus route rate? The 73rd overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft flashed a bit as a rookie (25-312-3) before missing the entire 2023 season due to hamstring issues. The athletic profile here is absurd, although that was also true in 2022, and Woods surpassed a 50% route rate on just three occasions all season.

Then again, Steichen certainly seems to be a fan:

"A big-bodied tight end that can run the vertical routes, run the shallows, run the deep cross. It’s awesome to see. Obviously, he’s a matchup for a defense that they gotta be prepared for.”

Bottom line: There are obviously question marks with Woods, but that's true of basically any TE going after the first 10 or so rounds in fantasy land. Priced as just the TE28 (pick 208.7), Woods offers more best-case-scenario upside than pretty much any other option at the position regularly available in the last round or two of drafts. He's an easy late-stacking partner with Richardson and someone who would be on the cover of waiver wire articles across the industry should something close to a full-time role emerge early in the season.

Colts 2024 Season Prediction

The Colts' reigning 28th-ranked scoring defense was the primary culprit here last season; they allowed 31, 29, 37, 39, 38, 34, 29 and 23 points in their eight losses. Accordingly, the team made UCLA EDGE Laiatu Latu (1.15) the first defender off the board last April, and bags of cash were thrown at front-seven stalwarts DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart and Zaire Franklin this offseason.

It'd be a lot cooler if the defense was more of a sure thing, but Year 2 behind what sure looks like a pretty great coaching staff should help, and this was a top-10 scoring offense a season ago despite not having their starting QB from October on. I'm a fan of taking OVER 8.5 wins for an organization moving in the right direction — the ceiling is the roof here if Richardson can meet even 90% of his tantalizing upside.

Players Mentioned in this Article