San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

The 49ers were a 4th-and-1 stop away from winning the Super Bowl last season, but alas. 2024 now marks 30 years since their last NFL championship, although the current regime has certainly kept the team consistently competitive, with a whopping four conference championship appearances in the last five years.

While having this sort of yearly success accordingly didn't require San Fran to overhaul their roster this offseason, all 32 teams will indeed look different than what we saw last year come Week 1. A quick overview of the 49ers' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Head coach: Kyle Shanahan (64-51 in 7 seasons with the 49ers)
Offensive coordinator: Shanahan (56.5% pass-play rate in 2017-23, 30th)
Offseason arrivals: QB Joshua Dobbs (1 year, $2.25 million), TE Eric Saubert (1 year, $1.292 million), TE Logan Thomas (1 year, $1.21 million), WR Trent Taylor (1 year, $1.125 million), RB Patrick Taylor (1 year, $1.055 million)
Offseason departures: QB Sam Darnold (Vikings), WR Ray-Ray McCloud (Falcons), TE Charlie Woerner (Falcons), TE Ross Dwelley (Falcons)
Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Florida WR Ricky Pearsall (1.31), Louisville RB Isaac Guerendo (4.129), Arizona WR Jacob Cowing (4.135)
Reigning PFF offensive line rank and returning starters: No. 21, 4/5

Here's to hoping third-round Kansas OL Dominick Puni and offseason tackle additions Chris Hubbard and Brandon Parker improve the team's performance at the line of scrimmage this season. The offensive line play was pretty much the only thing that could be called average inside of the league's third-ranked scoring offense a year ago.

Then again, it's not like this has stopped the 49ers' rising third-year QB from functioning as arguably the league's single-most efficient player at the position since he entered the NFL.

49ers Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

QB1: Brock Purdy (Fantasy Life consensus rank: QB11)
QB2: Joshua Dobbs

Call Purdy a system QB if you want, but under that pretense: This is one of the very best systems in the entire world.

Purdy among 32 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2023

EPA per dropback: +0.338 (No. 1)
Completion percentage over expected: +5.4% (No. 1)
PFF pass grade: 83.6 (tied for No. 8)
Passer rating: 113.0 (No. 1)
Yards per attempt: 9.6 (No. 1)

Pretty, pretty, pretty good, and by the way, the "system QB" argument falls a bit flat when you decide to, you know, watch Purdy play football.

Of course, Mr. Irrelevant does get more help than most. Kyle Shanahan is appropriately lauded as one of the league's premiere schematic minds, while this supporting cast would have my vote as the NFL's top group over at least the last half-decade of action.

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Critics can point to Purdy's much-discussed dropoff in performance with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams sidelined last season as evidence that he's more of a sum-of-its-parts QB than a true game-changer, but then again: Who really cares? Any QB is going to be worse when their team loses some of its best players.

At the end of the day, the 49ers rank first in EPA per play (+0.141), yards per play (6.3), and TD drive percentage (32%) since Purdy took over in Week 13 of 2022. Only the Cowboys (10) had more games with 30-plus points than the 49ers (9) last year; you don't need more than one hand to count the number of better overall offenses than what San Fran is working with.

The main question here is whether or not Purdy's sky-high efficiency can continue to make up for his lack of fantasy-friendly volume. San Francisco has regularly embraced the run under Shanahan, leading to Purdy attempting more than 35 passes in just one of his 16 regular season starts in 2023. He needs to remain one of the game's single-most efficient signal-callers to make up for life inside the league's reigning most run-heavy offense.

Remember those efficient statistics that make Purdy out to be the league's best QB? Well, they still "only" produced a QB7 finish in fantasy points per game—guys like Justin Fields and Russell Wilson scored within 1.4 fantasy points per contest of the 49ers' QB1 last season. An overwhelming amount of Purdy's fantasy production comes through the air, even if the man can scoot when he wants to. Fun fact: Only Kyler Murray (10.1) averaged more yards per scramble than Purdy (8.9) last season!

Bottom line: Purdy's standing as the QB13 (pick 112.6) in early ADP is more of a hedge on his efficiency falling back to earth just enough for his play style to render him as a similar fantasy prospect as pocket-passers like Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, and Kirk Cousins among others. That said, an argument can be made that Purdy should in fact be priced closer to guys like C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow. I tend to lean toward the latter placement in fantasy land due to the continuity across this entire organization: Purdy represents a GREAT mid-round value at the position on rosters that failed to come away with one of the position's early-round dual-threat talents. Remember: Style points don't count for anything extra in fantasy land.

Running Back

RB1: Christian McCaffrey (RB1)
RB2: Elijah Mitchell (RB60)
RB3: Jordan Mason
RB4: Isaac Guerendo

CMC is the RB1 in career PPR points per game (22.5) among all players at the position to ever play at least 16 games. Only Jim Brown (20.8) and LaDainian Tomlinson (20.3) are also over 20.

And guess what? The position's highest-paid player on a per-year basis ($19 million!) doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon. No. 2 in both rushing yards over expected per carry (+1.32) and PFF receiving grade (87.1) last season, McCaffrey is as complete of an RB as they come, and the 49ers were accordingly more willing to give him a true workhorse role than almost any other offense in the league.

Overall, CMC has finished as a top-24 RB in all but two of his games with the 49ers over the past two seasons. Hell, even his relatively bad performances can be explained away by limited usage. The high-end consistency here is unmatched at the position: McCaffrey's 16 top-24 finishes in 2023 were easily the most among all RBs, as were his 13 performances inside the top 12.

Nobody seems to dispute CMC's standing as the overall RB1 in fantasy land, but does he again deserve to go off draft boards as the legit 1.01?

I tend to think the answer is yes. The 28-year-old isn't quite at the point where we expect a dropoff in overall production, and his 1,297 career carries leave him below the scary 1,500 mark that historically is about when RBs start to lose efficiency.

McCaffrey's relative dominance at the position was unmatched in 2023:

Difference in total PPR fantasy points between No. 1 and No. 2 overall scorers in 2023:

QB: 13.4
RB: 122.6
WR: 12.5
TE: 6

Fantasy Life projections again have McCaffrey garnering the position's most fantasy-friendly workload, which is a scary thought inside a 49ers offense that once again looks poised to supply plenty of scoring opportunities.

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) runs with the ball against Kansas City Chiefs safety Mike Edwards (21) during overtime of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

But here’s a question for you: What would happen in fantasy land if CMC were to miss time? Obviously, nobody wants that to happen, but just for insurance, er, handcuff purposes, what other 49ers RB would benefit?

Well, The Athletic’s David Lombardi believes the answer is pretty clear:

"Elijah Mitchell is clear #2. All-around back, key is health. If training camp yields a productive RB logjam, it is fair to point out 49ers have previously traded RBs (Breida, Jeff Wilson Jr.) when they've had an excess of depth.”

It’s always possible rookie fourth-rounder Isaac Guerendo makes some noise in camp and moves up the depth chart, but as former third-round picks Trey Sermon (Colts) and Tyrion Davis-Price (Eagles) can attest: Getting John Lynch to draft you hardly guarantees an actual on-field role ever emerging (the early word on Guerendo also doesn’t sound overly promising).

Yes, Jordan Mason deserves credit for besting Mitchell in yards per carry (5.2 vs. 3.7) last season. Also, yes, head coach Kyle Shanahan gave the following endorsement last November:

“We look at more than stats. Mitchell’s our number two back. He’s done some pretty good things here and JP’s our three, he’s been our two at times. But it’s how most cases are in the NFL.”

Reminder: Mitchell was the RB15 in PPR points per game as the team's starter in 2021 and even ripped off PPR RB19 and RB14 finishes in his two games with extended action in 2023. Mitchell earned 32 of the backfield's 41 total touches during the second half of Week 17 and Week 18 while CMC was dealing with a calf injury.

Mitchell probably isn’t the most valuable handcuff in fantasy; the 49ers have generally refrained from asking much of him as a receiver over the years. That said: We have essentially 16 games worth of evidence that he’s good enough to offer upside RB2 production anytime CMC isn’t around to dominate the action.

Bottom line: CMC is deserving of overall 1.01 treatment in any one-QB fantasy league, while Mitchell continues to be one of the better LATE round handcuff bets at the position.

Wide Receiver

WR1: Brandon Aiyuk (WR12)
WR2: Deebo Samuel (WR15)
WR3: Ricky Pearsall (WR71)
WR4: Jauan Jennings
WR5: Ronnie Bell
WR6: Chris Conley
WR7: Jacob Cowing

Off-season trade speculation and the desire for a new contract has distracted from the fact that Aiyuk has emerged as one of the game's most lethal pass-catchers. His route-running mixtape is as good as anyone’s and he will be just 26 years young next season. The man is fresh off one of the most efficient seasons from a WR in the last decade; it's not surprising that ESPN (No. 1) and PFF (No. 2) both graded him among the position's top two players of 2023.

The "problem" here is—similar to Purdy—Aiyuk needs to operate with top-shelf efficiency in order to make up for his relative lack of targets. This offense is absolutely loaded, and accordingly, Aiyuk hasn't ever received a true WR1-level workload. Overall, his 101 targets last season ranked just 37th in the NFL.

Just look at the 2023 target shares for the current top-12 2024 WRs in terms of current Underdog ADP:

CeeDee Lamb (29.7%)
Tyreek Hill (32.9%)
Ja'Marr Chase (26.1%)
Justin Jefferson (28.5%)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (29.1%)
A.J. Brown (30.1%)
Puka Nacua (28.2%)
Garrett Wilson (30.2%)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (N/A)
Drake London (23%)
Chris Olave (25.3%)
Aiyuk (24.5%)

Fantasy Life projections do have Aiyuk leading the 2024 49ers in targets … with 110. That's a far cry from what similarly-priced guys like London (135), Olave (134), and Harrison (133) are expected to see.

That said, it's tough to blame the 49ers for any of this, because their offense continues to operate at one of the highest levels in the league, and they also have Deebo f*cking Samuel. Arguably the NFL’s most-beastly WR, Deebo regularly racks up ridiculous YAC and forces missed tackles like his life depends on it.

Jan 7, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) celebrates after a play against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

However, not to sound like a broke clock, but like every other pass-catcher in this offense, the workload here isn't ideal. Extra RB carries are fine in fantasy land, but not when they come at the expense of targets.

Deebo expected and realized PPR points per game:

2023: 16.2 realized (WR13), 12.1 expected (WR33)
2022: 13.3 realized (WR28), 13.5 expected (WR21)
2021: 21.1 realized (WR3), 15 expected (WR14)

Essentially the Nick Chubb of WRs, Samuel is an injury (or two) in this offense from seeing the sort of weekly workload that could help him return to 2021 heights.

Finally, there's the No. 3 WR job. First-round pick Ricky Pearsall is a savvy route-runner and deserves credit for quickly ascending to top-dog status at both Arizona State and Florida, but then again, his age and career TDs per game are relative red flags compared to most of the draft's other day-one and two WRs.

It seems unlikely there are enough targets for Pearsall to emerge as a consistent fantasy-relevant option when everyone here is healthy—and that's IF he can even displace Jauan Jennings from starting three WR sets. The badass blocker joined Puka Nacua as PFF's only two WRs with a run-blocking grade north of 80, and unironically looked like the Super Bowl MVP frontrunner for a good bit after making one helluva TD pass and also hauling in a short score.

Additionally, the 49ers' insistence on keeping Kyle Juszczyk involved has led to them running the third-fewest plays with at least three WRs on the field over the past two seasons.

Bottom line: Aiyuk deserves to be near the top of the borderline WR1-WR2 tier, but I've found myself leaning to 300-plus touch RBs Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley more times than not when the top 10 WRs are already off the board. I'm also not making a habit of taking Samuel over guys like Malik Nabers and D.K. Metcalf, who profile as having a much easier time flirting with truly gaudy target totals. Pearsall is only someone I'm adding late in drafts if building a 49ers stack; his 2024 upside appears heavily contingent on a trade happening.

Tight End

TE1: George Kittle (TE7)
TE2: Logan Thomas

One of just three players to average 3.1-plus yards per route run in a single season since 2010 regardless of position, Kittle's receiving ability has never been in question—it's just a matter of getting him the football enough.

Kittle might have the largest best-case ceiling of any TE in the league in terms of who could make 150 targets go the farthest, but totals of 94, 86, and 90 over the past three seasons have prevented him from re-reaching his early-career BOOMS.

Kittle career PPR per game finishes among all TEs to play at least 8 games:

2017: 7.1 (TE21)
2018: 16.2 (TE3)
2019: 15.9 (TE2)
2020: 15.6 (TE3)
2021: 14.1 (TE4)
2022: 13.4 (TE2)
2023: 12.7 (TE6)

Turning 32 in October, this is around the time that TEs drop off a bit in fantasy land, although the position does age better than most.

Kittle was responsible for three of the position's top-25 most-productive single-game performances in terms of half-PPR points. The upside here is bigger than most, but at least one injury elsewhere is probably necessary for the rising eighth-year veteran to really dominate like he did from 2018 to 2020.

Bottom line: Kittle is basically the top-ranked TE who doesn't have a great chance of clearing triple-digit targets this season. This places him behind only Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, and Kyle Pitts in fantasy land. The associated potential for week-winning boom weeks makes Kittle a "better in best ball" option who is a great fit on teams that already have three to four WRs by the time Round 6 comes around, but I struggle to overly go out of my way for someone regularly treated as an afterthought in his own passing game (11 games with 5 or fewer targets last year including postseason).

49ers 2024 Season Prediction

This defense has finished as a top-10 scoring group in three of the past four seasons and continued to invest on the defensive line in free agency in the form of Maliek Collins, Leonard Floyd, and Yetur Gross-Matos. Throw in the decision to use two of their top four draft picks on the secondary, and there isn't too much reason to believe this reigning top-10 defense in both scoring and EPA allowed per play is poised to take much of a step back.

A first-place schedule in the ever-strong NFC West isn't ideal, but then again this isn't exactly a new phenomenon for Shanahan and company, and they've managed to rip off 12, 13, 10, 6, and 13 wins over the past five seasons. I'm taking OVER 11.5 wins for arguably the most complete team in football—now if only they can avoid a date with a certain No. 15 come February.

Players Mentioned in this Article

San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

49ers Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

49ers 2024 Season Prediction

More 2024 NFL Team Previews

Players Mentioned in this Article

San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

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49ers Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

49ers 2024 Season Prediction

More 2024 NFL Team Previews