Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

The Raiders were more entertaining than your typical 8-9 playoff-less squad last season:

A 3-5 start and infamously rough team meeting led to Josh McDaniels getting fired, leading to linebackers coach Antonio Pierce getting promoted to interim head coach.
The Aidan O'Connell-led Raiders won five of their final nine games, with their final three victories coming over each of their AFC West rivals.
The Raiders went from losing to the Vikings 3-0 in Week 14 … to defeating the Chargers 63-21 in an exhilarating edition of Thursday Night Football.

The success was enough for Pierce to get the full-time gig, and even for O'Connell to earn a chance to compete for the starting job in 2024. Of course, plenty of additions and subtractions have been made along the way to ideally lead the team to their first playoff victory since 2002 (sheesh).

A quick overview of the Raiders' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Head coach: Antonio Pierce (5-4 as Raiders interim head coach in 2023)
Offensive coordinator: Luke Getsy (54% pass-play rate as Bears OC in 2022-23, 30th)
Offseason arrivals: QB Gardner Minshew (2 years, $25 million), TE Harrison Bryant (1 year, $3.25 million), WR Jalen Guyton (1 year, $1.292 million), RB Alexander Mattison (1 year, $2 million), WR Michael Gallup (1 year, $1.75 million)
Offseason departures: RB Josh Jacobs (Packers), TE Austin Hooper (Patriots), QB Jimmy Garoppolo (Rams), QB Brian Hoyer (free agent), WR Hunter Renfrow (free agent), WR DeAndre Carter (free agent), RB Brandon Bolden (free agent),
Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Georgia TE Brock Bowers (1.13), New Hampshire RB Dylan Laube (6.208)
Reigning PFF offensive line rank and returning starters: No. 10, 4/5

Losing RT Jermaine Eluemunor to the Giants in free agency isn't ideal, but don't expect too much of a dropoff from the offensive line considering the team used two picks inside the draft's top 80 selections on Oregon OL Jackson Powers-Johnson and Maryland OL Delmar Glaze.

That said: Even the world's greatest O-line wouldn't change the reality that we're looking at arguably the worst QB room in the league.

Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

QB1: Gardner Minshew (Fantasy Life consensus rank: QB33)
QB2: Aidan O'Connell (QB35)

With all due respect, and I mean with all due respect: This looks a lot like the NFL's single-worst QB situation.

Yes, Minshew helped keep the Colts competitive last season and hilariously earned a Pro Bowl nod.

Also yes, he joins O'Connell as two objectively below-average NFL QBs by virtually any advanced metric:

Among 32 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2023:

EPA per dropback: Minshew (+0.022, 22nd), O’Connell (-0.038, 25th)
Completion percentage over expected: Minshew (-3.3%, 31st), O’Connell (-3.9%, 32nd)
PFF pass grade: Minshew (60.6, 27th), O’Connell (64.6, 25th)
Passer rating: Minshew (84.6, 23rd), O’Connell (83.9, 25th)
Yards per attempt: Minshew (6.7, 23rd), O’Connell (6.5, 25th)

Peep that second stat from the top: Minshew and O’Connell were arguably the two least accurate QBs in all of football last season.

Dec 31, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell (4) draws back with the ball during a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Scheer-USA TODAY Sports

Early reports indicate that O'Connell actually has a slight edge, but then again the Raiders probably didn't sign up to pay Minshew $25 million to sit on the bench for the next two seasons.

Neither of these QBs presents fantasy-friendly rushing upside, and it's tough to see either having enough pass-game volume under new OC Luke Getsy (30th in pass play rate during his time with the Bears) to produce consistently meaningful booms through the air if something close to decent efficiency happens to emerge (emphasis on the big “if”).

Both QBs largely had average-to-good supporting casts last season … and still struggled to accomplish much of anything of relevance in fantasy land. The potential for this position battle to result in a short leash and/or actively persist into the season makes both players low-floor options for what sure looks like a (badly planned) one-year trial run.

Bottom line: Neither Minshew nor O'Connell figures to flirt with weekly top-20 status even with the benefit of a fully guaranteed starting job. Outside of LATE-round depth in superflex leagues or a last-round stacking partner in best ball, fantasy managers shouldn't concern themselves with this QB room in 2024.

Running Back

RB1: Zamir White (RB21)
RB2: Alexander Mattison (RB74)
RB3: Ameer Abdullah
RB4: Dylan Laube

On the one hand, the Raiders did add some level of outside competition to replace Josh Jacobs in the form of Alexander Mattison and sixth-round RB Dylan Laube.

On the other hand, Mattison averaged under four yards per carry last season and led the NFL with 180 scoreless rushing attempts. Laube demonstrated some fantasy-friendly receiving ability in college … but it was at the University of New Hampshire.

This leaves Zamir White as the projected bell-cow option inside a Raiders offense that made a habit of feeding him the rock down the stretch last season. The artist known as "Zeus" posted the following production in four games without Jacobs:

Week 15: 17-69-1 rushing, 3-16-0 receiving, 70% snaps, PPR RB12
Week 16: 22-145-0 rushing, 0-0-0 receiving, 76% snaps, RB17
Week 17: 20-71-0 rushing, 5-35-0 receiving, 57% snaps, RB16
Week 18: 25-112-0 rushing, 1-9-0 receiving, 73% snaps, RB21

The receiving production and snap rates reflect the reality that Ameer Abdullah or someone else will likely maintain involvement in pass-first situations, but it's hard to complain too much about someone capable of flirting with 20-plus touches on a weekly basis. White also deserves credit for largely making the most out of his opportunities on the ground: His average of +0.33 rushing yards over expected per carry ranked 14th among qualified RBs in 2023—one spot behind Saquon Barkley and one spot ahead of Jonathan Taylor.

Now, Raiders general manager Tom Telesco has been vocal about the team's desire to lean on multiple RBs. It's certainly possible Mattison shares some early-down work (hopefully not goal line), while Abdullah and/or Laube should see the majority of snaps in pass-first situations. Not exactly the most exhilarating situation to seek out inside a backfield that ranked just 16th in expected PPR points per game last season.

Bottom line: Nobody is confusing White with Christian McCaffrey or Breece Hall, but his mid-round ADP makes him akin to a poor man's version of Derrick Henry or Kenneth Walker in fantasy land thanks to the potential for that sweet, sweet volume. Normally this would be a dreaded "RB dead zone" pick, but there's a big difference between taking this archetype in Round 3 vs. Round 8. That said, I've found myself taking more chances on Rhamondre Stevenson (better potential for a true three-down role), Zack Moss (better offense), and Jaylen Warren (better receiving upside) over White at that stage of the draft. Mattison is someone to occasionally take in the final round of drafts as a prospective handcuff, but he's one of those picks to probably keep to yourself because, yeah, gross.

Wide Receiver

WR1: Davante Adams (WR11)
WR2: Jakobi Meyers (WR52)
WR3: Tre Tucker
WR4: Michael Gallup
WR5: Jalen Guyton

Adams enjoyed all sorts of success during his first season with the Raiders, racking up 100 receptions for 1,516 yards and a league-high 14 TDs. Life was generally good for the three-time first-team All-Pro.

And then 2023 happened. The Raiders still managed to feed their undisputed No. 1 WR a whopping 175 targets, but his 67.3 receiving yards per game marked the first time he finished below 80 since 2017.

Most advanced metrics painted the 31-year-old veteran as an average WR last season.

Adams among 80 WRs with 50-plus targets in 2023:

PFF receiving grade: 80.0 (No. 22)
ESPN receiver rating: 59 (tied for No. 34)
Yards per route run: 1.97 (tied for No. 27)
Yards per reception: 11.1 (No. 64)
Targets per route run: 29.4% (No. 2)
Passer rating when targeted: 81.1 (No. 65)

Of course, the Raiders' aforementioned porous situation under center didn't help matters. B-e-a-utiful double-moves that created all sorts of separation were constantly met with inaccurate deep balls. Ultimately, Adams (54) led the NFL in total targets that were deemed uncatchable by PFF.

Dec 14, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) runs against Los Angeles Chargers safety Alohi Gilman (32) in the first quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

We can help quantify this missed opportunity through "Unrealized Air Yards." Air yards measure the distance that any given pass travels (wait for it) through the air. Subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yardage total before taking the difference with total air yards helps us pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.

Sometimes unrealized air yards are more akin to “prayer yards” because the pass wasn’t exactly catchable in the first place, while in other instances can be blamed more so on the WR. As is the case with most things in life: Grinding the film helps add clarity to the situation.

Anyway, just five WRs accumulated over 1,000 unrealized air yards last season:

Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins (1,149)
Saints WR Chris Olave (1,145)
Raiders WR Davante Adams (1,091)
Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley (1,024)
Jets WR Garrett Wilson (1,010)

Now, Adams remains one of six players with 1,000-plus receiving yards in every season since 2020; he shouldn't be completely written off just yet, particularly inside an offense that centered 53.5% of its targets solely around him and Jakobi Meyers—the highest mark among teammate WRs in the NFL last season.

Speaking of Meyers, the ex-Patriots receiver made plenty of great plays during his debut in Vegas, even getting his old boss to admit they shouldn't have let him go.

Still, Meyers's early-season 1.B role quickly evaporated when Pierce took over and Jimmy Garoppolo took a seat on the bench. Overall, Adams racked up a whopping 94 targets from Week 9 on last season … and Meyers had 49. This was before the team decided to use their first-round pick on a TE considered to be one of the position's better pass-catchers in recent memory.

Expecting Meyers to again score as many receiving TDs as Adams is probably unwise inside an offense actively expected to rank among the league's bottom-five scoring groups, especially with Fantasy Life projections (again) expecting Adams to work as the passing game's clear-cut No. 1 option.

It'd be surprising to see any of Tre Tucker, Michael Gallup, or Jalen Guyton rank higher than fourth at best in targets inside of this sneaky-crowded, yet low-ceiling passing game. I'd put my money on Tucker leading the way, but this also profiles as one of the league's more high-volume two-TE offenses.

Bottom line: Adams's potential to once again breeze by 150 targets makes him tough to drop too far down the ole fantasy ranks; he did manage to finish last season as the WR15 in PPR points per game after all despite the aforementioned meh efficiency. Stilil, the age cliff is here, and spending a second-round pick on pure volume doesn't seem like a great habit. Meyers is certainly more affordable at his WR58, pick 119.6 ADP, but I've leaned towards rising second-year options in better offenses like Dontayvion Wicks and Josh Downs as well as fellow clear-cut No. 2 WRs … also in better offenses … like Brandin Cooks and Jerry Jeudy in that range when needing a WR.

Tight End

TE1: Brock Bowers (TE11)
TE2: Michael Mayer (TE28)
TE3: Harrison Bryant

There simply wasn’t a more productive TE in college football than Bowers over the past three seasons:

Bowers among 87 qualified Power 5 TEs in 2021-23:

PFF receiving grade: 94.1 (No. 1)
Passer rating when targeted: 148.9 (No. 1)
Receiving yards: 2,541 (No. 1)
Receiving TDs: 26 (No. 1)
Yards per route run: 2.64 (No. 1)
Yards per reception: 14.5 (No. 7)
Targets per route run: 23.3% (No. 10)

The domination at a powerhouse like Georgia is particularly intriguing. “RYPTPA” is a fancy acronym that means “Receiving yards per team pass attempt.” It’s one of the strongest correlators to future NFL production and a major part of Dwain McFarland’s Fantasy Life Rookie TE Super Model.

Here are the top career marks in RYPTA since 2018:

Bowers’s career passer rating when targeted (141.9) ranks second during the same span—it’s not surprising to see Kyle Pitts as the only TE with a higher overall model score.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler concluded his profile on Bowers with the following sentiment:

“Overall, Bowers is an explosive pass catcher who creates mismatches all over the field with speed, ball skills and competitive edge. He has NFL star potential in the mold of George Kittle, if he lands with a play caller prepared to feature his unique and versatile talent.“

Sep 30, 2023; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) carries a touchdown reception against the Auburn Tigers during the fourth quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Sadly, history tells us to maybe take a chill pill when projecting pretty much any rookie TE to ball out in fantasy land. Here are the top five seasons from a rookie TE over the past decade of action in terms of PPR points per game (min. 8 games):

2023 Sam LaPorta (14.1 PPR points per game, TE3)
2017 Evan Engram (11.6, TE4)
2021 Kyle Pitts (10.4, TE11)
2021 Pat Freiermuth (9.5, TE16)
2023 Dalton Kincaid (9.4, TE14)

Further complicating matters is that Bowers will presumably split snaps to some extent with 2023 second-round pick Michael Mayer. Fantasy Life projections give Bowers the edge, obviously, but the 64 to 43 target discrepancy could leave both talents as non-viable fantasy options due to the lack of a dominant target share inside a passing game not exactly expected to constantly put forward top-flight efficiency.

Bottom line: Bowers has the pedigree and profile of a future star and deserves to be treated as such in dynasty land, but for 2024 specifically I'm out on his TE10, pick 96.2 ADP. Cheaper options like David Njoku and Dallas Goedert also are pretty damn good at their jobs—and they're in offenses with less direct competition and far more proven QBs under center.

Raiders 2024 Season Prediction

This defense once again looks poised to make life fairly miserable for opposing QBs, as ex-Dolphins DL Christian Wilkins signed a big-money deal to team up with Maxx Crosby and company. The league's reigning ninth-ranked scoring unit allowed more than 23 points just once after Pierce took over last season; that sort of dominance will once again be required should the offense struggle to take a meaningful step forward.

There's not a lot to LOVE here, but this does profile as the sort of gritty, defensive-minded team capable of competing in consistently close games. With the potential for Minshew to provide something close to at least below-average performance, I'm taking OVER 6.5 wins for a squad that has cleared the mark in four of the last five seasons.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Raiders 2024 Season Prediction

More 2024 NFL Team Previews

Players Mentioned in this Article

Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

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Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Raiders 2024 Season Prediction

More 2024 NFL Team Previews